策略点评：实物无熊市

Group 1: Geopolitical Risks and Oil Prices - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has escalated, leading to significant disruptions in oil transportation and a sharp increase in global oil prices, with Brent crude rising over 9% to exceed $82 per barrel [2] - The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran is unlikely to trigger the same level of inflation and interest rate increases as the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, due to differences in the current economic environment, including a cooling labor market and easing tariff measures [3] Group 2: Industrial Metals and Strategic Resources - The decline in the CITIC non-ferrous metals index by 5.46% is attributed to concerns over inflation from rising oil prices and the historical learning effect from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which did not sustain long-term price increases for precious metals [4] - Despite short-term pressures on non-ferrous metals due to rising energy prices, the demand for industrial metals is expected to recover as geopolitical risks increase the need for resource reserves [4] Group 3: Embracing Physical Assets and Chinese Investments - In the face of technological challenges and regional conflicts, physical assets are gaining systemic importance, with Chinese assets being highlighted for their strong physical attributes and potential for revaluation [5] - Recommended investments include strategic resource assets such as crude oil, copper, aluminum, rare earths, and rubber, as well as sectors with confirmed cyclical bottoms in China, such as electrical equipment and petrochemicals [5]