Caitong Securities(SH:601108) CAITONG SECURITIES·2026-03-04 02:20Market Overview - The Middle East situation is causing uncertainty, leading to a market pullback as investors await policy direction from the upcoming Two Sessions[3] - Trump's statement indicates that military action against Iran may continue for four to five weeks, exceeding previous market expectations[3] Oil Market Impact - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has led to a significant slowdown in oil tanker movements, with speeds dropping to zero in the region, indicating a halt in shipping activities[3] - Oil prices are expected to rise in the long term due to ongoing security risks in the Strait, benefiting sectors like oil and gas, shipping, and oil services[3] Investment Strategy - Focus on offensive HALO sectors: price increases and overseas expansion in agriculture, chemical fibers, and rare earths; high-end manufacturing; and capital market beneficiaries like brokerages[3] - Defensive HALO sectors include low-holding industries such as coal and real estate, and TMT sectors with low correlation[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include an unexpected U.S. economic recession, overseas financial risks, and the possibility of historical trends failing to hold[3]