信达国际控股港股晨报-20260305

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is expected to find short-term support at 24,696 points, influenced by escalating tensions in the Middle East and potential tariff increases by the US government [2] - The HSI has formed a head-and-shoulders pattern since January, and if it falls below 25,000 points, it may test the 24,696 points level, which corresponds to a Fibonacci retracement of 0.382 from the low of 19,260 points in April 2025 to the high of 28,056 points in January 2026 [2] Sector Outlook - Short-term positive outlook for sectors including JD Group (9618), JD Health (6618), and Bilibili (9626) based on their performance [3] - The macroeconomic focus includes China's GDP growth target set between 4.5% and 5% for the year, which is lower than last year's target of 5% but aligns with expectations [3][7] - The US Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates a slight to moderate economic growth across most districts, with expectations of a 15% global tariff potentially being implemented soon [3][9] Company News - Discussions are ongoing in the US regarding whether Tencent Holdings (0700) should retain its gaming company equity [3] - Lenovo Group (0992) has reportedly informed distributors of price increases, with some computers seeing price hikes of over 1,000 RMB [3] - The performance of oil stocks is expected to rebound due to disruptions in oil supply caused by Iranian retaliation [6] Economic Indicators - China's official manufacturing PMI fell to 49 in February, indicating a contraction for two consecutive months, with production and new orders declining [7] - In contrast, the RatingDog manufacturing PMI rose to 52.1, indicating an expansion and the strongest growth rate since December 2020, driven by increased new orders and export momentum [8] - The service sector PMI also improved to 56.7, marking the fastest growth in nearly three years, supported by strong demand and business optimism [8] Retail Performance - Hong Kong's retail sales increased by 5.5% year-on-year in January, continuing a nine-month upward trend, with online sales accounting for 8.1% of total sales [8] - The growth in retail sales is attributed to a steady economic recovery and an increase in visitor numbers, which is expected to support local consumption [8] Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,249 points, down 2.01% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Tech Index has seen a decline of 12.45% [4] - The US stock market showed positive movement, with major indices rising between 0.5% and 1.3% [5]