BILIBILI(US:BILI) First Shanghai Securities·2026-03-05 02:30Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating to Bilibili (BILI/9626) based on its performance outlook for 2025 [2][3]. Core Insights - Bilibili is expected to report a fourth-quarter revenue of 8.19 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.8%, and an annual revenue of 30.21 billion RMB, reflecting a 12.6% increase [5]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in Non-GAAP net profit for the fourth quarter, projected at 820 million RMB, a year-on-year growth of 80.3%, and an annual profit of 2.51 billion RMB, marking a turnaround from a net loss of 20 million RMB in 2024 [5][10]. - The management plans to enhance the core segment of live streaming and value-added services by enriching content ecosystems and optimizing monetization strategies [6]. Revenue Breakdown - Mobile gaming revenue for Q4 is expected to be 1.53 billion RMB, a decline of 14.7% year-on-year, while the annual revenue is projected at 6.39 billion RMB, an increase of 13.8% [5]. - Live streaming and value-added services are expected to generate 3.25 billion RMB in Q4, up 5.4% year-on-year, and 11.92 billion RMB for the year, up 8.4% [5]. - Advertising revenue is projected to reach 2.95 billion RMB in Q4, a growth of 23.4%, and 9.96 billion RMB for the year, reflecting a 21.6% increase [5]. User Engagement and Growth - The average daily active users (DAU) are expected to be around 111 million, with monthly active users (MAU) at approximately 367 million, and average daily usage time projected to increase to about 108 minutes [10]. - The average age of core users has risen to 26 years, contributing to a steady increase in paid membership numbers [6]. Future Outlook - The report highlights the importance of AI tools in enhancing user-generated content (UGC) creation, which is expected to expand the content supply and improve advertising inventory [7]. - The management is anticipated to provide further guidance on commercialization opportunities and cost management strategies during the upcoming earnings call [10].