东吴证券晨会纪要-20260306

Macro Strategy - The government work report aligns with market expectations on total policy but emphasizes details in investment, consumption, green initiatives, fiscal policy, and livelihood, indicating a strategic layout from subtle details [1][9] - A policy financial tool of 800 billion, an increase of 300 billion from last year, aims to explore investment potential [1][9] - A special fund of 100 billion for fiscal-financial collaboration is established to promote consumption and expand domestic demand [1][9] - The energy consumption target is replaced with a carbon emission target, aiming for a 3.8% reduction in carbon emissions per unit of GDP [1][9] - Housing security for newly married and childbearing families is strengthened, encouraging marriage and childbirth while aiding real estate inventory reduction and cost reduction [1][9] Fixed Income - Xianghe Convertible Bond (113701) has a total issuance scale of 400 million, with net proceeds allocated for smart equipment production and a new plastic modification material production line [2][12] - Tonglian Convertible Bond (118066) has a total issuance scale of 576 million, with net proceeds directed towards a new smart home appliance manufacturing base [3][14] - The expected listing price for Xianghe Convertible Bond is between 125.96 and 139.97, with a subscription rate of 0.0015% [12] - The expected listing price for Tonglian Convertible Bond is between 139.70 and 155.09, with a subscription rate of 0.0023% [14] Industry Insights - Ctrip Group's international business continues to grow rapidly, with a focus on inbound tourism strategies [7][8] - The forecast for Ctrip's non-GAAP net profit for 2026-2028 is 20 billion, 22 billion, and 23.9 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12, 11, and 10 times [8]