HEILAN HOME(SH:600398) Orient Securities·2026-03-06 05:24Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][11]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a slight adjustment in earnings forecasts, with projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 being 0.45, 0.49, and 0.55 yuan respectively, compared to previous estimates of 0.46, 0.51, and 0.58 yuan [4][11]. - A target price of 7.84 yuan is set based on a 16x price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2026 [4][11]. - The company’s urban outlet business is anticipated to accelerate following a recent equity restructuring, with plans to open over 100 new stores annually starting in 2026 [10]. - The main brand is expected to maintain steady growth, supported by a strong start in early 2026 with double-digit year-on-year growth in offline sales [10]. - The collaboration with Adidas in the "Sports+" ecosystem has entered a profitable phase, indicating significant growth potential for the FCC business [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 21,528 million yuan, 20,957 million yuan, 21,814 million yuan, 23,778 million yuan, and 25,990 million yuan, with growth rates of 16.0%, -2.7%, 4.1%, 9.0%, and 9.3% respectively [4][11]. - Operating profit is forecasted to be 3,611 million yuan in 2023A, decreasing to 2,780 million yuan in 2024A, and then gradually increasing to 3,366 million yuan by 2027E [4][11]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline from 2,952 million yuan in 2023A to 2,159 million yuan in 2024A, before recovering to 2,653 million yuan in 2027E [4][11]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable at around 44.5% to 44.9% from 2025E to 2027E [4][11]. - The net profit margin is expected to decrease from 13.7% in 2023A to 10.3% in 2024A, then stabilize around 10% in the following years [4][11].