Eastern Air Logistics (SH:601156) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-03-06 05:41Investment Rating - The investment rating for Eastern Airlines Logistics (601156) is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights that the aviation logistics sector is expected to see long-term performance growth due to the construction of core resources that create a competitive moat for Eastern Airlines Logistics [2] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine war and escalating Middle East conflicts, have significantly disrupted global air cargo networks, leading to a reduction in available air transport capacity [2] - The report emphasizes that the demand for air cargo remains relatively inelastic, particularly for high-value and time-sensitive goods, which positions Chinese cargo airlines favorably in the current market [2] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The aviation logistics industry is experiencing disruptions due to geopolitical events, with significant impacts on air transport capacity and operational efficiency [2] - The closure of airspace has led to a 39% decrease in available cargo ton-kilometers (ACTK) for routes between Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, while direct flight capacities between Asia and Europe have increased by approximately 13%-14% [2] Market Dynamics - The report notes that air cargo accounts for less than 1% of global trade volume but represents about 30-35% of global trade value, indicating its critical role in high-value trade [2] - Recent data shows that air freight rates have increased moderately, with specific routes experiencing price hikes: 2% for China-North America, 7% for China-Northern Europe, and 3% for Northern Europe-North America [2] Competitive Advantages - Chinese cargo airlines possess three key advantages: 1. Route advantages allowing them to bypass Russian airspace, resulting in lower operational costs compared to European airlines [2] 2. Demand advantages as China is the largest cross-border e-commerce exporter, providing a steady demand for air cargo services [2] 3. Capacity advantages, as potential exits of European airlines from certain routes could allow Chinese airlines to capture additional market share [2] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic air cargo companies, particularly Eastern Airlines Logistics and China National Aviation Holding, as they are expected to benefit from the current supply-demand mismatch in the air cargo market [2]