乐歌股份：主业韧性充足，海外仓驱动增长-20260306

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's main business shows resilience, with growth driven by overseas warehouses. The company is focusing on long-term strategies, enhancing R&D investments, and optimizing product structures to improve user experience and operational efficiency [8] - Despite high revenue growth in the short term, the company's performance is under pressure, with a significant decline in net profit in recent quarters [8] - The overseas warehouse segment is performing well, contributing to revenue growth, with a projected global logistics market size of approximately $9.98 trillion in 2024, expected to reach $11.23 trillion by 2025 [8] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 3,902 million RMB - 2024: 5,670 million RMB - 2025: 6,822 million RMB - 2026: 8,113 million RMB - 2027: 9,286 million RMB - The revenue growth rates are projected at 21.6% for 2023, 45.3% for 2024, 20.3% for 2025, 18.9% for 2026, and 14.5% for 2027 [7] - The net profit forecast shows a decline in 2024 and 2025, with expected values of 336 million RMB and 277 million RMB respectively, before recovering to 344 million RMB in 2026 and 397 million RMB in 2027 [7] - The company is expected to maintain a PE ratio of 16.6 in 2025, decreasing to 11.6 by 2027 [7] Operational Insights - The company has established 19 self-operated overseas warehouses with a total area of 650,000 square meters, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and cost control through automation and information technology investments [8] - The company’s chairman has outlined key focus areas for 2026, including strengthening R&D and improving global operational networks [8]