东航物流（601156）：公司深度研究：航空货运龙头，跨境物流长坡厚雪

Investment Rating - The report assigns an initial investment rating of "Buy" for the company [1] Core Insights - The report analyzes the fundamental status of the company, including its business operations and financial conditions, and provides a forecast for future business development along with profit predictions based on core assumptions [19] - The company is positioned as a leader in air cargo logistics, with a strong foundation built over two decades, and is expected to benefit significantly from the growing demand in cross-border e-commerce logistics [21][26] - The company has maintained a robust growth trajectory, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +19.4% in revenue and +30.0% in net profit from 2016 to 2024, despite facing challenges from tariff policies in 2025 [26][33] Summary by Sections Business Overview - The company, originally established in 2004, has evolved into a comprehensive air logistics service provider, relying on its own freighters and the belly cargo of passenger aircraft from its parent company [16][21] - The company has a diversified business structure, including air cargo, integrated logistics, and ground services, with a significant portion of revenue now coming from integrated logistics solutions [21][26] Market Demand and Supply - The demand for air cargo is expected to grow significantly, driven by cross-border e-commerce, which is projected to contribute nearly one-third of global air freight volume by 2027 [2][48] - Supply constraints in air cargo capacity are evident, with limited growth in the number of freighters and a slowdown in the conversion of passenger aircraft to cargo use, leading to stable freight rates [2][61] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected to be 243.22 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 1% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to decrease by 2% to 26.34 billion yuan [6][8] - The report indicates that the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is relatively low compared to comparable companies, suggesting potential undervaluation [6][8] Operational Insights - The air express segment has shown steady growth, with a CAGR of +6.59% in cargo turnover from 2018 to 2024, and the revenue from air express operations is expected to remain stable [3][69] - The integrated logistics solutions segment has experienced rapid growth, with a CAGR of +35.8% from 2018 to 2024, indicating a strong future growth trajectory [6][26]