南华期货光伏产业周报：行业底部，静待东风-20260308

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current photovoltaic industry is at the bottom of the capacity cycle, showing a "weak supply and demand" characteristic. The supply side of polysilicon has seen a decline in production, and the demand side of downstream silicon wafers, cells, and components is also under pressure. The industry is in a contraction state, and the inventory is at a historical high. It is necessary to wait for capacity clearance and improvement of the supply - demand pattern [3]. - The Middle East war may increase the demand for distributed energy in various countries. Photovoltaic, as the core supply pillar of distributed green power, will become the main incremental force of the distributed power grid along with wind power. The global energy transformation trend is irreversible, and photovoltaic is the core track of energy structure transformation [4]. - In the short - term (before mid - 2026), the trading logic focuses on changes in technical trends and supply - side production reduction. In the long - term (after mid - 2026), it focuses on the anti - involution process, inventory consumption, and the demand for distributed power grids in various countries [6][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The core factors leading to the sharp decline in polysilicon futures prices this week include the anti - involution progress, supply - side production resumption, downstream demand - side production scheduling, and inventory consumption [3]. - The industry's fundamentals show "weak supply and demand." The supply side of polysilicon has a declining production trend, and the demand side of downstream links is also under pressure. The overall industry is in a contraction state, and the inventory is at a historical high [3]. 3.1.2 Industry Operation Suggestions - Polysilicon futures prices are expected to fluctuate widely. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 28.63%, and the historical percentile of volatility in the past 3 years is 83.6% [10]. - Different hedging suggestions are provided for polysilicon sales, procurement, and inventory management, with recommended hedging ratios ranging from 10% to 20% [10]. 3.2 Market Information - On March 5, 2026, the government work report was released [11]. 3.3 Market Analysis 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - This week, the polysilicon weighted index contract closed at 41,576 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 11.09%. The trading volume was 10,741 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 7.36%, and the open interest was 58,536 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 7,167 lots [13][15]. - The MACD and moving averages (daily level) show that the polysilicon futures price has fallen below the 5 - day moving average and entered a downward channel. The Bollinger Bands (daily level) show that the price is running near the lower band, and the overall trend of the Bollinger Bands is still downward [15]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of polysilicon has been strengthening in a volatile manner. The implied volatility of at - the - money options has shown a wide - range volatile strengthening trend, and the PCR of option open interest has been weakening marginally [17]. - The long - position scale of key profitable seats in polysilicon has shown a slow decline in the past week [19]. - The term structure of polysilicon futures presents a contango structure. The basis of the main contract has shown a volatile and strengthening trend, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of taking goods from the futures market [21][23]. 3.3.2 Futures and Price Data - The prices of various types of polysilicon and related products such as silicon wafers, cells, and components have shown different degrees of changes. For example, the price of N - type granular silicon has decreased by 12.00% week - on - week, while the price of some distributed components has increased slightly [27]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - The overall profit of polysilicon enterprises is weakening. From the spot market, the spot profit of polysilicon is declining. In terms of production process, the profit of the silane method is higher than that of the improved Siemens method [28]. - Based on the accounting model with industrial silicon and electricity as the main cost components, the gross profit margin of polysilicon futures is about 14.61% [28]. 3.5 Fundamental Data 3.5.1 Polysilicon Supply - Domestic polysilicon weekly production shows different trends. SMM's weekly production is 18,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.05%, while Baichuan's weekly production is 19,330 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.90% [37]. - Overseas polysilicon monthly production and monthly capacity utilization rate data are provided [39]. - The net export of domestic polysilicon shows seasonal characteristics. The domestic polysilicon weekly inventory is at a high level, with different changes in various inventory types [41][42]. 3.5.2 Silicon Wafer Supply - The weekly production of silicon wafers is 11.08 GW, a week - on - week decrease of 2.38%, and the weekly inventory is 29.01 GW, a week - on - week decrease of 6.60% [45]. - The monthly net export of silicon wafers shows seasonal characteristics [48]. 3.5.3 Cell Supply - The monthly production and capacity utilization rate of cells show seasonal characteristics. The weekly inventory of cells is 8.72 GW, a week - on - week decrease of 6.34% [52][56]. 3.5.4 Photovoltaic Module Supply - The monthly production and capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic modules show seasonal characteristics. The weekly inventory of photovoltaic modules is 28.4 GW, a week - on - week increase of 15.92% [59][62]. - The monthly net export of photovoltaic modules shows seasonal characteristics [61]. 3.5.5 Bidding - The weekly data of photovoltaic module winning bids show that the winning bid capacity is 1,309.96 MW, a week - on - week increase of 194.96%, and the winning bid average price is 0.76 yuan/watt, a week - on - week increase of 1.33% [64]. 3.5.6 Installation and Application - The monthly new installation volume of Chinese photovoltaics shows seasonal characteristics. The data of Chinese green power generation and the proportion of photovoltaic power generation are also provided [68][70].