Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2026-03-08 11:34Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, ferroalloys continued to be volatile and strong. The geopolitical conflict in Iran triggered a sharp rise in the crude oil and energy - chemical sectors, increasing the global energy supply chain risk. The sentiment spilled over to the coal sector, strengthening the energy attribute of coal. The oil - coal prices moved in the same long - term direction, and the oil price drove up the coking coal price, raising the cost support for ferroalloys and potentially lifting the price center of ferroalloys [2]. - From the perspective of the ferroalloy fundamentals, on the supply side, the production of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is at the lowest level in the same period of the past five years. Although the improvement in ferroalloy prices has marginally increased ferroalloy profits, the profits are still in the red, so the drive for复产 is relatively weak, and the supply - side pressure is relatively small. The production of ferrosilicon decreased by 2.12% month - on - month, and that of silicomanganese decreased by 0.79% month - on - month, with the supply side continuing to shrink. On the demand side, production restrictions during the Two Sessions led to a short - term decline in hot metal, but it will return to normal levels later. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is about 40%, and the possibility of a significant increase in production is low. Although the blast furnace profits have declined due to inventory accumulation and the rise in raw material prices, hot metal production is not likely to be cut immediately, providing some support for ferroalloy demand, but the support may be limited, and future steel tenders need to be monitored [3]. - In terms of inventory, the ferrosilicon inventory is at a neutral level, with the enterprise inventory at 66,200 tons, a 5.85% month - on - month decrease; the silicomanganese inventory is 387,300 tons, a 2.76% month - on - month decrease. Although there is destocking on a month - on - month basis, the inventory is still at the highest level in the same period of the past five years, and the destocking pressure is large. If the silicomanganese price continues to rise, there will be a driving force for the industrial end to enter the market for hedging. The price of manganese ore is supported by miners, and the price is firm. In the short term, the cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but the weak terminal demand for downstream steel and the high inventory pressure of steel plates limit the upward movement of ferroalloy prices [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Near - term trading logic: Ferroalloy cost support limits the downside space. Manganese ore news causes price fluctuations, and manganese ore miners support prices. The geopolitical conflict in Iran triggers a sharp rise in the crude oil and energy - chemical sectors, increasing the global energy supply chain risk. The sentiment spills over to the coal sector, strengthening the energy attribute of coal. The oil - coal prices move in the same long - term direction, and the oil price drives up the coking coal price [7]. - Long - term trading expectations: Anti - involution expectations, accelerating the comprehensive green and low - carbon transformation, and effectively controlling high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects from next year, as well as the 14th Five - Year Plan [7]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: Range - bound and bullish. - Price range: The price range of the ferrosilicon 05 contract is between 5,600 - 6,400, and that of the silicomanganese 05 contract is between 5,900 - 6,500 [7]. - Basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage strategy recommendations: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies [7][10]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Ferroalloy price range forecast: The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5,300 - 6,000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.72% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 35.0%. For silicomanganese, the monthly price range forecast is 5,300 - 6,000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.54% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 25.8% [8]. - Ferroalloy hedging: For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about ferroalloy price drops, short ferroalloy futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 15% and a recommended entry range of 5,800 - 6,000 for ferrosilicon and 6,000 - 6,200 for silicomanganese. For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low and there is a need to purchase according to orders, buy ferroalloy futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 5,200 - 5,300 for ferrosilicon and 5,300 - 5,400 for silicomanganese [11]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: The rise in crude oil prices drives up coking coal, increasing the cost support for ferroalloys. Hot metal supports ferroalloy demand. Ferroalloy production profits are in the red, so a low - production strategy is maintained. Manganese ore quotes are firm, with the price rising month - on - month. Silicomanganese destocked on a month - on - month basis this week [11][12][16]. - Negative information: The silicomanganese inventory is at a high level, the highest in the past five years, with large destocking pressure. The increasing number of warehouse receipts exerts some pressure on the market. The downstream terminal steel consumption is average, and the terminal consumption has not officially started. The hot - rolled coil inventory is at a historical high in the same period [16]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Next Monday, China will announce the CPI for February. - Next Tuesday, China will announce the M2 supply for February. - Next Wednesday, the United States will announce the unadjusted CPI at the end of February. - Next Thursday, the United States will announce the initial jobless claims for the week [17]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend and capital movement: Analyzed the closing prices and positions of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, but no specific conclusions are given [18][19]. - Basis and calendar spread structure: Analyzed the term - structure spreads of ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, and coking coal, as well as the seasonal patterns of the basis and calendar spreads of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, but no specific conclusions are given [20][21][24]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Analyzed the production profits and output of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the market prices and production costs of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia, the seasonal electricity prices of ferroalloys in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, the inventory structure and price of coking coal, the import profits of coking coal, the seasonal patterns of coal shipping volume, sea - floating volume, manganese ore price, port inventory, shipping volume, etc., but no specific conclusions are given [39][41][44]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - Analyzed the relationship between the export profit and export volume of ferrosilicon, but no specific conclusions are given [63]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections - On the supply side, the production profits of ferroalloys have marginally improved but are still in the red. The possibility of large - scale production cuts is low, and the ferroalloy output will fluctuate slightly at the current level, with the decline trend gradually flattening and starting to pick up. On the demand side, steel mills have a good profit situation and a drive to resume production, and the hot - metal output is rising, supporting ferroalloy demand. The ferroalloy inventory is at a high level, and the silicomanganese enterprise inventory is at the highest level in the past five years, with large inventory pressure. Destocking may still need to be achieved through production cuts [64]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projections - Analyzed the predicted seasonal patterns of the weekly output of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the relationship between production profits and output, and the relationship between hot - metal output and ferroalloy output, but no specific conclusions are given [67][69][72]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projections - Analyzed the predicted seasonal patterns of the weekly demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in five major steel products, the relationship between hot - metal output, steel enterprise profitability, and ferroalloy demand, as well as the relationship between silicomanganese demand and steel production profits, but no specific conclusions are given [76][81][83]. 5.4 Inventory - Side and Projections - Analyzed the predicted seasonal patterns of the weekly enterprise inventory, warehouse receipt quantity, and total inventory (warehouse receipt + factory inventory) of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, but no specific conclusions are given [94][96][100].