海外周报：滞胀交易升温-20260308

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - This week, stagflation trading overseas has heated up. The escalation of the US - Iran situation, with a trend from "blitzkrieg" to "protracted war" and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has led to a surge in oil prices. The weakening of US non - farm data has also contributed. Except for the US dollar strengthening due to global liquidity concerns, other assets seem to be "opponents" of crude oil [2]. - The financial market shows a sharply differentiated pattern of "strong oil and weak everything else". Brent crude oil soared 27.88% to $92.69 per barrel in a single week. Global stock markets were generally under pressure, with Europe leading the decline and the US Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 3.01%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 20bp to 4.14%, reflecting rising inflation expectations. Spot gold fell 2.03% as the strong US dollar and rising yields suppressed its hedging function. The VIX soared to 29.49, and market panic increased but did not break the extreme threshold. Chinese bonds declined slightly, and the domestic liquidity - loose pattern was not significantly affected [2]. - In terms of macro data, US non - farm and PMI data show stagflation signals of "weak quantity and rising prices". In February, the number of new non - farm jobs was - 92,000, far worse than expected. The unemployment rate rose to 4.44%, and the labor participation rate was only 62.0%. The ISM manufacturing PMI remained at an expansion level of 52.4, but the price index soared to 70.5, the highest since June 2022. The manufacturing PMIs of the Eurozone and Japan rose to 50.8 and 53.0 respectively, returning to or accelerating expansion [2]. - High - frequency data shows that the US economic momentum is still relatively strong, but financial conditions have tightened marginally. GDPNow indicates a first - quarter growth rate of 2.1%. The initial jobless claims were 213,000, remaining at a low level, while the continued jobless claims rose to 1.868 million, indicating that the difficulty of re - employment may have increased. The Redbook retail sales increased year - on - year to 7.0%, showing consumption resilience. The 30 - year mortgage rate dropped to 6.11%, supporting housing demand. The CRB commodity index rose 12.6% in a single week, hitting a new high, and the financial conditions indexes of the US and Europe both declined significantly, and risk appetite declined [2]. - At the overseas policy level, there are obvious differences among Federal Reserve voting members in their assessment of the impact of geopolitical and tariff shocks. Some are inclined to continue cutting interest rates, while others are more cautious and may even consider raising rates. The ECB emphasizes two - way flexibility, the BOJ incorporates the Middle East shock into its assessment framework, and the US shows a tactical relaxation of Russian oil sanctions to ease the supply gap [2]. - In terms of geopolitical situation, Iran has entered the most dangerous leadership transition period in its history, and the direction of the conflict is still highly uncertain. After the death of Khamenei, power has been transferred to a three - member temporary committee. Missile launches have dropped by nearly 90%, but the "Kurdish card" is being re - considered. Trump's definition of "unconditional surrender" is becoming more flexible, and there is a possibility of a "decent retreat" after declaring victory. Although oil prices have incorporated a large amount of risk premium, the continued blockade of the Strait and the risk of oil tanker attacks still pose upward pressure. China maintains a cautious distance from the conflict, and the process of Trump's visit to China is unlikely to be affected [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Overview: Stagflation Trading Heats Up - US non - farm data was significantly worse than expected, mainly due to the Kaiser strike and the BLS birth - death model adjustment. The manufacturing PMI remained in expansion, but the price sub - item soared, and inflation pressure re - accumulated. The US - Israel joint strike on Iran led to a sharp escalation of the Middle East situation, with the tanker transportation in the Strait of Hormuz interrupted. Brent crude oil soared nearly 28% in a single week, global stock markets were generally under pressure, and US Treasury yields rose due to rising inflation expectations [6]. 3.2 Financial Markets: Oil Surges, US Dollar Strengthens, Stocks, Bonds, and Gold Under Pressure - The commodity sector showed significant differentiation. Crude oil soared due to the escalation of the Iran war, becoming the most volatile asset class. Brent crude oil rose from $72.48 per barrel at the beginning of the week to $92.69 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 27.88%. Spot gold fell 2.03% to $5171.74 per ounce, as the strong US dollar and rising US Treasury yields suppressed the gold price. London aluminum rose 9.75% to $3446 per ton, possibly due to the expected increase in aluminum smelting costs caused by rising energy costs [14]. - Global stock markets were generally sold off. Geopolitical conflicts and soaring energy prices had a double - blow to corporate profit prospects. European markets had the largest decline, while A - shares and US stocks were relatively resilient. In the US stock market, the Dow Jones fell 3.01%, the S&P 500 fell 2.02%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.24%. In the Chinese stock market, the CSI 300 fell 1.54%, the Hang Seng Index fell 3.28%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 3.71% [15][16]. - The yields of government bonds in major global economies mostly rose, reflecting market concerns about inflation caused by soaring energy prices. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 20.08bp to 4.1383%, and the 30 - year rose 14.61bp to 4.7567%. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury yield fell 0.80bp to 1.801%, and the 30 - year fell 1.20bp to 2.285%, indicating that the domestic liquidity - loose pattern was not significantly affected by external shocks [18]. - Global major spread indicators showed the characteristics of widening credit spreads, narrow - range fluctuations in term spreads, and expanding European sovereign spreads. The US high - yield bond spread widened by about 14bp, reflecting an increase in the market's pricing of low - rating credit risks. The US term spread (10Y - 2Y) fluctuated in a narrow range, and the yield curve shape was relatively stable. The yields of 10 - year German and Italian bonds rose, and the Italian - German spread widened. The 10 - year Japanese bond yield also continued to rise moderately [19]. - In terms of exchange rates, geopolitical conflicts drove safe - haven funds into US dollar assets, the US dollar index strengthened, and non - US currencies were generally under pressure, but the RMB was relatively stable. The US dollar index rose from 97.608 to 98.986 (+1.41%). The on - shore RMB depreciated slightly to 6.9047, and the RMB appreciated against the euro. Volatility indicators soared, and market panic increased, but the absolute level was still lower than the historical extreme value [24][25]. 3.3 Overseas Released Data 3.3.1 US Non - Farm Data Weakens More Than Expected - In February, the number of new non - farm jobs was - 92,000, far lower than the market expectation of 55,000. The main reasons were the Kaiser strike, which affected about 31,000 workers in California and Hawaii, and the BLS's systematic adjustment of the birth - death model. Without these two impacts, the new non - farm jobs would have exceeded market expectations [26]. - The unemployment rate in February was 4.44%, up 0.12% from the previous month. The labor participation rate was only 62.0%, and re - entrants to the labor market were the main factor driving up the unemployment rate. The labor market had a greater impact on young people and ethnic minorities, reflecting certain structural problems [29][31]. - Looking ahead, the Fed's interest - rate cut path may be disturbed. If the current oil price increase does not significantly raise inflation expectations, the probability of an interest - rate cut in June may further increase [33]. 3.3.2 US PMI Price Index Soars, Eurozone PMI Returns to Expansion - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMIs of major overseas economies generally improved, and most returned to the expansion range. The Eurozone manufacturing PMI reached 50.8, breaking through the boom - bust line for the first time in nearly two years. Germany's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9, driving the Eurozone's manufacturing recovery. Japan's manufacturing PMI jumped to 53.0, reaching a new high in recent years [36]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in February was 52.4, remaining in the expansion range for the second consecutive month. The new order index and production index slowed down but still expanded, the employment index improved slightly but remained in contraction, and the price index soared to 70.5, the highest since June 2022, indicating re - accumulated inflation pressure in the manufacturing sector, which may strengthen the Fed's wait - and - see stance [37]. 3.4 Overseas High - Frequency Data Tracking 3.4.1 Economic Prosperity: Tightening of US and European Financing Conditions - The US economic surprise index first rose and then fell in the past week, while the Eurozone economic surprise index stabilized after a significant decline. Overall, the US economic data exceeded expectations more than the Eurozone. The US and European financial conditions indexes both tightened, which may be related to the increasing uncertainty of global trade policies and the decline in risk appetite [39][41][42]. 3.4.2 US High - Frequency Employment Data Remains Robust - The US labor market high - frequency data was generally stable, but the continued jobless claims rebounded slightly. The initial jobless claims remained at a low level, indicating limited short - term lay - off pressure, while the increase in continued jobless claims suggested that the difficulty of re - employment may have increased [44]. 3.4.3 US Commodity Prices Rise Significantly, Mortgage Rates Fall - The US consumer market showed resilience, with the Redbook retail sales year - on - year growth rate rising to 7.0%. The 30 - year mortgage rate dropped to 6.11%, and the MBA mortgage application index improved, indicating that low interest rates supported housing demand. The CRB commodity index rose 12.6% in a single week, hitting a new high, and the impact of commodity inflation on core inflation needs to be monitored [46][47]. 3.5 Overseas Policy and Geopolitical Analysis 3.5.1 Overseas Macroeconomic Policy: Pay Close Attention to the Inflation Impact of the Middle East Situation - There are differences among Federal Reserve voting members on whether to regard the inflation disturbance caused by geopolitical and tariff issues as short - term noise. Some members believe that further interest - rate cuts are necessary if inflation falls as expected, while others are more cautious. The ECB emphasizes two - way flexibility, and the BOJ has incorporated the Middle East shock into its policy assessment framework. The US has shown a tactical relaxation of Russian oil sanctions [51][52]. 3.5.2 Geopolitical Analysis: Uncertainty in the Iranian Situation Increases - Politically, Iran has entered the most dangerous leadership transition period in its history. Power has been transferred to a three - member temporary committee. Militarily, the scale of Iran's missile attacks on Israel has significantly decreased. The US military goal may be achievable, but Israel's political goal may be difficult to achieve. Trump's definition of "unconditional surrender" is flexible, and there are possibilities of a "decent retreat". Oil prices have incorporated a large amount of risk premium, but there is still upward pressure. The "Kurdish card" may be played again, aiming to disrupt Iran's internal stability. China maintains a cautious distance from the conflict, and Trump's visit to China is unlikely to be affected [53][55][57]. 3.5.3 Other Overseas News - Regarding the Russia - Ukraine situation, the Ukraine - Russia talks may be rescheduled due to the escalation of the Middle East situation. The EU will strengthen support for Ukraine's reform and accession process. Russia launched large - scale missile and drone attacks on Ukraine. - In terms of tariffs, multiple US states sued the Trump administration over new global tariff measures, and the US trade court ordered the government to refund tariffs [60]. 3.6 Future One - Week Important Agenda - Domestically, key data to be focused on include CPI/PPI, import and export, and money supply/social financing/deposit and loan data. Overseas, key data include US CPI, import and export, and PCE data. There are also some events with undetermined specific times, such as the continuous fermentation of the Iran war, the G7 finance ministers' meeting to discuss the economic impact of the Middle East situation, and a possible meeting between Bezant and Vice - Premier He [63].