Zhongtai Securities(SH:600918) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2026-03-08 13:25Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Increase" with an expectation of a growth rate exceeding 10% relative to the benchmark index over the next 6 to 12 months [19]. Core Insights - The market has entered a consolidation phase, with the core observation variable being changes in risk appetite. The upcoming end of the Two Sessions may lead to a decrease in risk appetite, compounded by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and rising oil prices [3][11]. - The Wind All A Index has seen a decline of 2.3% over the past week, with small-cap stocks represented by the CSI 1000 dropping 3.64% and mid-cap stocks by the CSI 500 falling 3.44% [3][9]. - The short-term market environment is characterized by a narrowing distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages, indicating a potential continuation of the downward trend [8][10]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Wind All A Index is currently in a consolidation phase, with a PE ratio at the 90th percentile, indicating a high valuation level, while the PB ratio is at the 50th percentile, suggesting a moderate valuation level [12][14]. - The market trend line is positioned around 6790 points, with a negative profit effect recently recorded at -0.1% [10][17]. Sector Allocation - The mid-term industry allocation model continues to recommend the technology sector, particularly focusing on commercial aerospace (satellite ETF 563230.SH) for rebound opportunities. The performance trend model highlights the importance of the computing-related industry chain (semiconductor equipment ETF 159516.SZ, communication ETF 515880.SH) and cyclical sectors (oil and gas ETF 159309.SZ, energy and chemicals ETF 159981.SH), as well as agriculture (agriculture ETF 562900.SH) [7][9][11]. - Additionally, a defensive strategy suggests short-term attention on bank ETFs [9][11]. Trading Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a 60% position in absolute return products based on the Wind All A Index, reflecting the current market conditions and valuation metrics [12][19]. - The market is expected to remain in a consolidation phase, with potential adjustments still in play, and a wait for trading volume to drop below 2 trillion is advised for a possible effective rebound [3][11].