双焦周报20260309：地缘因素扰动，盘面低位反弹-20260309

Report Title - Geopolitical factors cause disturbances, and the market rebounds from a low position. Double Coking Weekly Report 20260309 [1] Report Author - Zhou Guisheng. Qualifications: F3036194 (Practicing Qualification), Z0015986 (Investment Consulting) [1] Market Views Coking Coal Fundamentals - Supply: The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 82.32% (+14.08%), and the daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines was 74.78 tons (+9.08). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal washing plants was 26.57% (+3.84%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 19.9 tons (+2.99). Most coal mines in major producing areas have resumed normal production, and the supply of imported Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port has also returned to a high level [3]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 227.59 tons (-5.69), and the blast furnace operating rate was 77.71% (-2.51). The available days of coking coal in 247 steel mills were 12.41 days (-0.24), and those in 230 independent coking plants were 11.88 days (-0.4). During the important meetings, steel mills in North China limited production. After the production limit ends, downstream coking plants and steel mills are expected to replenish their inventories [3]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 286.26 tons (+28.6), that of all - sample independent coking plants was 949.45 tons (-49.41), that of steel mills was 775.64 tons (-16.82), that of 314 sample coal washing plants was 288.53 tons (-10.4), and that of major ports was 267.7 tons (-4.27). Currently, except for a slight accumulation of mine inventories, the inventories of other coking plants, coal washing plants, and steel mills have decreased [3]. - Summary: Last week, the supply of the coking coal market increased. With the end of production limits, downstream demand is expected to recover, and the supply - demand structure is expected to gradually improve. It is expected to remain volatile and slightly strong in the short term [3]. Coke Fundamentals - Supply: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants was 17 yuan/ton (+24). The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants was 73.95% (-0.41%), and the daily output was 63.94 tons (-0.76). The daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 47 tons (-0.1). During the Two Sessions, some coking enterprises in Hebei limited production, and overall production remained stable [4]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 227.59 tons (-5.69), and the blast furnace operating rate was 77.71% (-2.51). The available days of coke in 247 steel mills were 12.53 days (+0.12). After the production limit ends, the demand for coke replenishment is expected to increase [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 110.3 tons (+2.48), that of major ports was 203.11 tons (+6.01), and that of 247 steel mills was 671.26 tons (-3.85). The overall social inventory of coke increased slightly [4]. - Summary: The supply - demand situation of coke is weak, but with the recovery of molten iron production and the increase in raw material coking coal prices, the market is expected to be volatile and slightly strong. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery situation [4]. Macro - Real Estate Tracking - The report includes data on the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of national fixed asset investment, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of national real estate, the weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities, and the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of the steel industry and the manufacturing industry [6][10][14][18] Coking Coal Supply - Demand Tracking - The report tracks data such as the purchase price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu, Jinzhong, Shanxi, the spot price comparison of mainstream coking coal in the country, the basis of coking coal contracts, the daily output and operating rate of 523 sample coal mines, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants, the daily output and blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills, the inventories of various entities, and the customs clearance vehicles of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port [21][26][33] Coke Supply - Demand Tracking - The report tracks data such as the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang, the spot price adjustment schedule and comparison of coke, the basis of coke contracts, the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of coke in independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills, the inventories of various entities, and the available days of coke inventory in 247 steel mills [62][64][70]