Holly Futures(SZ:001236) Hong Ye Qi Huo·2026-03-09 11:14Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The inventory of steel products is at a high level, and steel prices are fluctuating. The supply and demand of rebar and hot-rolled coils are in different situations. Overall, the market is affected by factors such as production restrictions, demand recovery, and cost support, and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1][4][5]. Summary by Directory Supply - Rebar production has increased, with long-process production decreasing due to blast furnace restrictions and short-process production increasing as electric furnaces resume production. The weekly output of rebar from major steel mills in the country is 173,310 tons (+8,210 tons). Hot-rolled coil production has decreased significantly due to environmental protection restrictions, with the weekly output at 301,110 tons (-8,500 tons) [5][7]. - The blast furnace operating rate is 77.71%, a week-on-week decrease of 2.51%, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.32%, a week-on-week decrease of 2.13%. The electric furnace operating rate is 24.71%, a week-on-week increase of 14.57%, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate is 20.71%, a week-on-week increase of 13.36% [7]. - Due to blast furnace restrictions in the North China region, as of March 6, the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan is 84.11%, a week-on-week decrease of 12.7% [29]. Demand - Steel demand is recovering but remains at a low level. The apparent demand for rebar last week was 98,230 tons (+64,680 tons), and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils was 281,570 tons (+13,200 tons) [7]. - As of March 6, the weekly average trading volume of rebar is 56,500 tons, and the trading volume is at a low level. The weekly average trading volume of hot-rolled coils is 40,300 tons. As of February 27, the downstream cold-rolled production is 885,100 tons, a week-on-week increase of 7,600 tons, and it is at a high level year-on-year [44][48]. Inventory - Rebar and hot-rolled coil inventories continue to accumulate. The total rebar inventory is 875,680 tons (+75,080 tons), the social inventory is 637,750 tons (+69,990 tons), and the steel mill inventory is 237,930 tons (+5,090 tons). The total hot-rolled coil inventory is 471,690 tons (+19,540 tons), the social inventory is 381,610 tons (+24,240 tons), and the steel mill inventory is 90,080 tons (-4,700 tons) [7]. - As of March 6, the billet inventory in Tangshan is 597,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 67,000 tons. The inventory of major steel products is 1,402,740 tons, a week-on-week increase of 106,690 tons [51]. Price - As of March 6, the average price of rebar in major cities across the country is 3,300 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 4 yuan/ton; the average price of hot-rolled coils across the country is 3,265 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 4 yuan/ton [10]. - As of March 6, the basis of the rebar main contract is 102 yuan/ton (-41 yuan), and the basis of the hot-rolled coil main contract is 0 yuan/ton (-15 yuan) [7]. Raw Materials - The price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke is 1,470 yuan/ton, with no week-on-week change; the price of main coking coal in Lvliang is 1,483 yuan/ton, with no week-on-week change; the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port is 764 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 15 yuan [17]. Other Market Data - According to customs data, in December, steel exports were 1.13 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 132,000 tons; from January to December, the cumulative steel export volume was 119 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 7.5%. In November, hot-rolled coil exports were 180,480 tons [61]. - According to Steel Union data, in January, automobile production was 2.45 million vehicles, a month-on-month decrease of 846,000 vehicles; automobile sales were 2.346 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 926,200 tons. In January, new energy vehicle production was 1.041 million vehicles, a month-on-month decrease of 677,000 vehicles; new energy vehicle sales were 945,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 765,000 tons [65]. - From January to December, national real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year-on-year, with a decline of 1.3%. Specifically, from January to December, the cumulative new construction area of housing was 597.7 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.4%; the completed housing area was 603.48 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.1%. From January to December, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 881.01 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 12.6% year-on-year, with a decline of 1.5%. From January to December, the cumulative funds in place for development enterprises were 93.117 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4% [68][69].