SCS(SH:601555) Soochow Securities·2026-03-10 04:59Group 1: Oil Price Impact on Inflation - The ongoing US-Iran conflict has raised concerns about oil supply, pushing global oil prices above $110 per barrel, which heightens stagflation fears and will directly impact the US CPI in March and beyond[1] - In a baseline scenario, if oil prices remain at $100 per barrel, with a 50% transmission rate to gasoline prices, the year-end CPI growth rate is projected to be 3.48%[1] - In a risk scenario, if oil prices stay at $150 per barrel with a 100% transmission rate, the year-end CPI growth rate could reach 7.15%[1] Group 2: Transmission Mechanism of Oil Prices - Oil prices primarily affect the US CPI through retail gasoline prices, with a transmission rate of approximately 50%[1] - Historical data shows that during periods of rising oil prices, the transmission to gasoline prices is faster than during declines, exemplified by the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict where the transmission coefficient reached 100%[1] - The "second-round effect" of rising oil prices can lead to persistent inflation, as evidenced by studies indicating that oil price increases can gradually elevate overall CPI over several quarters[1] Group 3: Market Expectations and Risks - Market expectations for a ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict are uncertain, with a 55% probability of a ceasefire by April 30 and 70% by June 30[2] - If the conflict persists and oil production is disrupted, there is a risk of oil prices exceeding $150 per barrel, which would significantly impact US inflation and delay potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[1] - The current geopolitical situation and its unpredictability necessitate a comprehensive assessment of the tail risks associated with rising oil prices on US inflation[1]