需求复苏预期，盘面震荡反弹

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The current iron ore supply and demand are relatively loose. Recently, the price has rebounded due to the expectation of resuming production and replenishing inventory and the boost of the international situation. However, as the situation cools down, it will maintain a volatile trend in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the recovery of demand. The trading strategy is a low - level rebound [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - The spot price of iron ore oscillated and rebounded. As of March 9, 2026, the spot price of Karara powder was 909, up 23 from last week, and the discounted futures price was 856, up 24 from last week; the spot price of PB powder was 777, up 23 from last week, and the discounted futures price was 826, up 25 from last week; the spot price of Super Special powder was 662, up 17 from last week, and the discounted futures price was 862, up 18 from last week [7][28] Mineral Powder Spread - The spread between high - grade and medium - grade ores remained stable, and the spread between medium - grade and low - grade ores slightly widened. The spread between PB powder and Macfarlane powder slightly increased [12][15] Futures Spread and Basis - The 5 - 9 spread rebounded slightly from the low level, and the basis of the 05 contract first rose and then fell. The basis of the 05 and 09 contracts slightly declined [19] Relative Valuation - The ratio of rebar to iron ore slightly declined from the low level, and the ratio of iron ore to coke oscillated at a high level [29] Supply - From March 2nd to March 8th, the global iron ore shipment volume was 28.978 million tons, a decrease of 4.429 million tons compared with the previous period. The shipment volume from Australia was 17.532 million tons, a decrease of 1.953 million tons; the shipment volume from Brazil was 5.745 million tons, a decrease of 1.632 million tons; the shipment volume of non - mainstream mines was 10.279 million tons, a decrease of 2.033 million tons. The arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 26.099 million tons, an increase of 4.63 million tons. As of March 6th, the daily average output of iron concentrate from 186 domestic mines was 453,600 tons, an increase of 21,200 tons compared with the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate was 58.05%, an increase of 2.71%. The inventory of mine concentrates was 950,700 tons, an increase of 137,000 tons [5] Demand - In the week of March 6th, the daily average pig iron output was 2.2759 million tons, a decrease of 56,900 tons compared with the previous period. During the important meeting, the blast furnace production restrictions of steel mills in North China increased, resulting in a significant decline in pig iron output. After the production restrictions end, steel mills are expected to resume production seasonally, which will support the procurement of raw material ores [5] Inventory - The inventory of imported ores increased slightly this period, and the number of ships at the port increased by 5 to 112. The port congestion increased slightly, and the arrival volume rebounded significantly. Due to the stop - falling and rebound of the port clearance volume, the port inventory increased slightly, which put pressure on the ore price. The steel mill inventory decreased slightly, maintaining a low - inventory strategy [5]