唯品会：利润率保持稳健，延续丰厚股东回报-20260310

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company with a target price of $16, reflecting a potential downside of approximately 2% from the current price of $16.27 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q4 2025 was RMB 32.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, which was below market expectations by 2.8%. The GMV recorded was RMB 66.6 billion, showing a slight increase year-on-year, primarily supported by average order value, despite a 4.5% decline in total order volume [1]. - The revenue weakness is attributed to a warm winter last year that suppressed demand for winter clothing, coupled with the later timing of the Spring Festival in 2026, which postponed consumption demand to Q1 [1]. - The company has implemented strict cost controls, resulting in a stable profit margin, with a gross margin of 22.9% and an adjusted profit margin of 8.8% for Q4 2025, exceeding market expectations [1]. - For Q1 2026, the revenue guidance is set between RMB 26.3 billion and RMB 27.6 billion, indicating a year-on-year growth of 0-5%, driven by the Spring Festival shopping season and a recovery in consumer sentiment [2]. - The company aims for user growth to offset a slight increase in return rates and continues its generous shareholder return policy, announcing an annual dividend of $0.62 per ADS and committing to return over 75% of adjusted net profit for 2025 (approximately RMB 6.5 billion) to shareholders in 2026, corresponding to a current yield of about 11% [2]. Financial Summary - The financial projections for the company indicate a revenue forecast of RMB 106.9 billion for FY26, with expected year-on-year growth of 1% and 3% for FY27 [2][4]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to be RMB 8.4 billion for FY26, with a slight decrease from RMB 8.7 billion in FY25 [4]. - The target P/E ratios are estimated at 6.5x for FY26 and 6.3x for FY27, suggesting that the shareholder return rate remains attractive despite the unclear business recovery [2][4].