FII(SH:601138) Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-03-11 01:33Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the Iran - US conflict, global risk preferences are disturbed, with rising oil prices, weakened Fed rate - cut expectations, and a rapid rise in US Treasury yields. The domestic two - sessions continue moderately loose monetary and more active fiscal policies. Attention should be paid to the war situation and risk control [4]. - The economic recovery's sustainability needs observation, and there is still room for loose monetary policy. The Iran geopolitical conflict and rising inflation may put pressure on the bond market, and the bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. - Gold prices are in a narrow - range shock. Geopolitics boosts gold and silver prices in the short - term, but inflation expectations and weak US economic data suppress precious metal prices. A cautious bearish view is taken on precious metals [9]. - Due to the Middle East war, copper prices are expected to rise in the short - term, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong, zinc prices may break downward, lead prices are expected to stop falling and recover, nickel prices will fluctuate, tin prices will fluctuate widely, lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate in a range, alumina prices will fluctuate widely, stainless steel prices will rise in a shock, and casting aluminum alloy prices will remain strong [12][14][16][17][18][20][21][24][25][27]. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, iron ore prices will fluctuate, coking coal and coke prices may fluctuate or slightly rebound in the short - term and are optimistic in the long - term, glass prices will fluctuate in a range, soda ash prices will fluctuate with the coal - chemical industry, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices may have short - term rebound opportunities, and industrial silicon and polysilicon prices will fluctuate [30][32][35][38][39][40][43][46][48]. - Rubber trading should be flexible, crude oil has a bearish strategic configuration, methanol should take profit at high prices, urea should be short - allocated, pure benzene and styrene should be observed on the sidelines, PVC may rebound in the short - term, ethylene glycol may have inventory reduction expectations, PTA may have valuation increase space, PX has a good medium - term pattern, polyethylene can be short - sold on rallies, and polypropylene's long - term contradiction shifts to production mismatch [54][56][58][60][62][64][66][68][72][74][77]. - Pig prices may remain weakly stable in the short - term, egg prices may be stable with partial narrow - range adjustments, soybean and rapeseed meal prices should be observed on the sidelines in the short - term, oil prices are bullish in the medium - term, sugar prices may rebound, and cotton prices may rise if downstream starts up well [80][82][85][87][91][93]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance Stock Index - Market Information: Iran's parliamentary speaker says no cease - fire is sought, Trump says conditional negotiation with Iran is possible; the National Internet Emergency Center issues a risk warning for OpenClaw; storage chips and precious metals rise, and some car companies try to raise prices; Industrial Foshan's 2025 revenue is 902.887 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 48.22%, and net profit is 35.286 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 51.99% [2]. - Basis Annualized Ratio: IF: 6.96%/5.44%/8.68%/6.49%; IC: 6.01%/5.89%/11.20%/8.33%; IM: 13.22%/9.71%/16.30%/11.40%; IH: 0.44%/0.43%/1.63%/3.34% [3]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Pay attention to the war situation and control risks [4]. Treasury Bond - Market Information: On Tuesday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have different changes; China's January - February exports and imports increase, and the trade surplus is 213.62 billion US dollars; Middle East oil production cuts up to 6.7 million barrels per day; the central bank conducts 3.85 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 52 million yuan [5]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The economic recovery's sustainability needs observation, and the bond market may be pressured by inflation. It is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. Precious Metals - Market Information: Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver rise; US API crude oil inventory is lower than expected, and US non - farm payrolls decrease; Trump and Iran's parliamentary speaker have different stances on negotiation and cease - fire, and Iran may lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz [8]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Gold prices are in a narrow - range shock. Geopolitics and inflation expectations affect prices. A cautious bearish view is taken, with Shanghai gold's reference range of 1100 - 1200 yuan/gram and Shanghai silver's of 20500 - 23000 yuan/kilogram [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market Information: Crude oil and precious metals rise, driving up copper prices. LME and domestic warehouse inventories change, and the spot basis changes [11]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The Middle East war provides emotional support. The copper supply is tight, and prices are expected to rise in the short - term. The reference range for Shanghai copper is 100800 - 102800 yuan/ton, and for LME copper is 12900 - 13300 US dollars/ton [12]. Aluminum - Market Information: Crude oil fluctuates, LME aluminum's cancelled warrants increase, and aluminum prices rise. Warehouse inventories and spot basis change [13]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The Middle East war affects supply, and domestic downstream production resumes. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong. The reference range for Shanghai aluminum is 24600 - 25800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum is 3350 - 3500 US dollars/ton [14]. Zinc - Market Information: Zinc prices rise slightly. Warehouse inventories and basis change [15]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The zinc industry is weak, and the Iran conflict has little impact on supply. Zinc prices may break downward and will fluctuate widely [16]. Lead - Market Information: Lead prices fall. Warehouse inventories and basis change [17]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Lead production and demand are weak, but prices are at the lower end of the shock range. They are expected to stop falling and recover [17]. Nickel - Market Information: Nickel prices rise slightly. Spot premiums and raw material prices change [18]. - Strategy Viewpoint: In the medium - term, nickel prices are supported by policies. In the short - term, they will fluctuate. The reference range for Shanghai nickel is 120000 - 160000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel is 16000 - 20000 US dollars/ton [18]. Tin - Market Information: Tin prices rise. Supply is tight, and demand is in the recovery stage [19]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The market is bullish on tin, but supply and demand are marginally loose. Tin prices will fluctuate widely. The reference range for domestic tin is 370000 - 450000 yuan/ton, and for overseas tin is 47000 - 54000 US dollars/ton [20]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: Lithium carbonate prices rise. Spot and futures prices change [21]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The Iran situation eases, and the lithium market may range - fluctuate. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 150000 - 175000 yuan/ton [21]. Alumina - Market Information: Alumina prices fall. Warehouse inventories and basis change [22]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Over - inventory and supply factors suppress prices. They will fluctuate widely. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2700 - 3000 yuan/ton [24]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: Stainless steel prices rise. Spot prices and warehouse inventories change [25]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Market purchasing warms up, and prices are expected to rise in a shock. The reference range for the main contract is 13800 - 14500 yuan/ton [25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: Casting aluminum alloy prices rise slightly. Warehouse inventories and contract spreads change [26]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Cost and demand factors support prices, which are expected to remain strong [27]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market Information: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices fall. Warehouse inventories and positions change [29]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Steel prices will fluctuate weakly in the short - term. The key lies in inventory digestion and demand verification [30]. Iron Ore - Market Information: Iron ore prices fall slightly. Warehouse inventories and basis change [31]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Overseas supply is volatile, and demand is weak. Prices will fluctuate in the short - term [32]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Information: Coking coal and coke prices fall. Spot prices and basis change [33]. - Strategy Viewpoint: In the short - term, prices may fluctuate or slightly rebound. In the long - term, they are optimistic [35][38]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass - Market Information: Glass prices fall. Warehouse inventories and positions change [39]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Demand improves slightly, and prices will fluctuate in a range. The reference range for the main contract is 1040 - 1130 yuan/ton [39]. - Soda Ash - Market Information: Soda ash prices fall. Warehouse inventories and positions change [40]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The market is in a wait - and - see state, and prices will fluctuate with the coal - chemical industry. The reference range for the main contract is 1200 - 1300 yuan/ton [40]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: Manganese silicon prices fall, and ferrosilicon prices rise slightly. Spot prices and basis change [41]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The Middle East war affects market sentiment. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon may have short - term rebound opportunities [43]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon - Market Information: Industrial silicon prices fall. Warehouse inventories and basis change [45]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Supply and demand may increase in March, and prices will fluctuate or rebound [46]. - Polysilicon - Market Information: Polysilicon prices fall. Warehouse inventories and basis change [47]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Supply and demand increase, but inventory reduction is limited. Prices will fluctuate [48]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market Information: Crude oil and butadiene prices fall, affecting rubber prices. Tire production and inventory change [50][51]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Trade flexibly and set stop - losses. Consider buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [54]. Crude Oil - Market Information: Crude oil and refined oil prices fall [55]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Adopt a bearish strategic configuration, do long - short operations on different oil spreads [56]. Methanol - Market Information: Methanol prices change. Spot and futures prices change [57]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Take profit at high prices [58]. Urea - Market Information: Urea prices change. Spot and futures prices change [59]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Short - allocate urea [60]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: Pure benzene prices fall, and styrene prices rise. Supply, demand, and basis change [61]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Observe on the sidelines [62]. PVC - Market Information: PVC prices fall. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory change [63]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Prices may rebound in the short - term, but beware of risks [64]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: Ethylene glycol prices fall. Supply, demand, and inventory change [65]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Supply may decrease, and inventory may reduce. Be cautious of over - rising [66]. PTA - Market Information: PTA prices fall. Supply, demand, and inventory change [67]. - Strategy Viewpoint: PTA may not enter a de - stocking cycle. Valuation may rise, but beware of over - rising [68]. p - Xylene - Market Information: PX prices fall. Supply, demand, and inventory change [70][71]. - Strategy Viewpoint: PX will enter a de - stocking cycle in March. Valuation may rise, but beware of over - rising [72]. Polyethylene PE - Market Information: PE prices fall. Supply, demand, and inventory change [73]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Short - sell on rallies for the LL2605 - LL2609 contract [74]. Polypropylene PP - Market Information: PP prices fall. Supply, demand, and inventory change [75]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The long - term contradiction shifts to production mismatch [77]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market Information: Pig prices vary. Market supply and demand change [79]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Pig prices may remain weakly stable in the short - term. Short - sell on rallies for the near - term and observe the far - term [80]. Eggs - Market Information: Egg prices vary. Market supply and demand change [81]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Egg prices may be stable with partial narrow - range adjustments. Short - sell on rallies for the near - term and pay attention to cost support for the far - term [82]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: Soybean import and production data change [83][84]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Observe on the sidelines in the short - term [85]. Oils - Market Information: Indonesia may restart the B50 policy, and palm oil production, export, and inventory data change [86]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Bullish in the medium - term [87]. Sugar - Market Information: Sugar production data in different countries change [88][90]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Sugar prices may rebound. Participate in long positions on dips [91]. Cotton - Market Information: Cotton production, export, and inventory data change [92]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Pay attention to downstream start - up. Buy on dips [93].