SHCI(SH:601225) GF SECURITIES·2026-03-11 07:29Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 25.08 CNY and a fair value of 26.63 CNY [6]. Core Insights - The company's Q4 earnings showed a slight decline, with a full-year ROE reaching 18%. The company has a significant resource advantage, and despite a decrease in coal prices, its profitability remains relatively stable compared to the industry [10]. - The company reported a total coal production of 175 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, and a total electricity generation of 418 billion kWh, a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year [10]. - The company is expected to benefit from cost control and growth in electricity sales, with a projected net profit of 165 billion CNY for 2025, 181 billion CNY for 2026, and 192 billion CNY for 2027 [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 170,872 million CNY, with a growth rate of 2.4%. For 2024, revenue is expected to increase to 184,145 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 7.8%. However, a decline of 14.1% is anticipated in 2025 [2][4]. - EBITDA is forecasted to be 55,931 million CNY in 2023, decreasing to 46,251 million CNY by 2025 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 21,239 million CNY in 2023, with a significant drop to 16,548 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a decrease of 39.5% [2][10]. - The company’s EPS is projected to be 2.19 CNY in 2023, declining to 1.71 CNY in 2025 [2][10]. - The ROE is expected to be 23.8% in 2023, decreasing to 16.7% in 2025 [2][10].