能源金属行业周报：油价走高压制有色金属，关键金属的供需格局不改，后续仍看好关键金属的全面行情-20260315

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the supply uncertainty in nickel due to slow approval processes and adverse weather conditions in Indonesia may support nickel prices [1] - The report anticipates a continued bullish trend for key metals, particularly nickel, cobalt, lithium, and tungsten, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand [1][15] Nickel Industry Summary - As of March 13, LME nickel spot price was $17,340 per ton, up 0.81% from March 6, with total LME nickel inventory at 284,658 tons, down 1.01% [1] - Indonesia's nickel production quota for 2026 is set between 260 million to 270 million tons, significantly reduced from 42 million wet tons last year [1] - Weather disruptions and production halts in Indonesia are expected to tighten supply, potentially supporting nickel prices [1][15] Cobalt Industry Summary - As of March 13, electrolytic cobalt was priced at 433,000 yuan per ton, up 0.12% from March 6, while cobalt supply from the Democratic Republic of Congo remains constrained [4] - The report projects that cobalt supply will become increasingly tight over the next two years, leading to potential price increases [4][16] Lithium Industry Summary - As of March 13, domestic lithium carbonate futures closed at 152,100 yuan per ton, down 2.61% from March 6 [7] - Supply disruptions from Zimbabwe and uncertainties regarding the resumption of production at key lithium mines in China are expected to maintain upward pressure on lithium prices [7][18] - The report suggests that demand for lithium may increase due to rising oil prices and adjustments in export tax policies [7][18] Tungsten Industry Summary - As of March 13, white tungsten concentrate (65%) was priced at 1,046,000 yuan per ton, up 14.19% from March 6 [12] - The report indicates a continued tightening of tungsten supply due to strict mining quotas and environmental regulations, supporting price increases [12][21] Uranium Industry Summary - Global uranium prices remain high, with a market price of $69.71 per pound as of January, despite a decline from previous highs [14] - Supply constraints and geopolitical factors are expected to keep uranium prices supported in the medium term [14][22]