策略周报：第三次能源范式转型，混沌阶段的主线扩散-20260315

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in global energy strategy from "fossil fuel dominance" to "new energy technology sovereignty" due to geopolitical conflicts, particularly the ongoing military tensions in the Middle East [2][11] - Short-term impacts on the A-share market are expected to be manageable, with a transition to a structural slow bull market in the medium term [15][37] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the expansion of mainline sectors and the performance clustering of core sub-sectors [16][41] Long-term Impact - The current geopolitical situation is likely to accelerate global energy structure adjustments, comparable to the previous two oil crises in 1973 and 1979, which catalyzed major shifts in energy policies towards state intervention and diversification [9][10] - The 2026 U.S.-Iran military conflict is seen as a potential historical turning point, pushing countries towards renewable energy and reducing reliance on fossil fuels [11][12] Short-term Impact - The report maintains that the overall impact of rising oil prices on the A-share index remains within a controllable range, with the market expected to enter a phase of fluctuation [15][28] - The report notes that the market is approaching a bottom, but the exact timing is uncertain due to military conflict disturbances [15][36] Industry Focus - The report suggests that due to liquidity constraints, the technology sector may face short-term valuation pressures, leading to a shift towards advanced manufacturing sectors such as electric vehicles and new energy [16][21] - It identifies a cyclical rotation in commodities, with industrial prices leading the way, and anticipates a rise in chemical prices supported by macroeconomic conditions [16][17] - The report highlights that the AI industry is expected to remain resilient despite geopolitical tensions, with strong growth potential in core sub-sectors [17][41] Market Trends - The report indicates that the mainline sectors, particularly those driven by policy and geopolitical catalysts, are currently experiencing high concentration, with a potential for increased volatility in the future [41][42] - It notes that the previously strong performance of resource sectors has begun to show signs of adjustment, while technology and consumer sectors are starting to recover [42][45]