能源金属行业周报：油价走高压制有色金属，关键金属的供需格局不改，后续仍看好关键金属的全面行情

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the supply uncertainty in nickel due to slow approval processes and weather disruptions in Indonesia may support nickel prices. The production quota for nickel ore in Indonesia for 2026 is set between 260 million to 270 million tons, significantly reduced from 42 million wet tons last year [1][15] - The cobalt market is expected to remain tight due to slow export processes in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with a forecasted supply shortage leading to potential price increases [4][16] - The antimony market is anticipated to maintain a strong price due to supply constraints, with recent production declines and export controls impacting availability [5][17] - Lithium supply disruptions are expected to continue, with a focus on rising demand driven by high oil prices and potential export tax adjustments that may stimulate short-term demand [7][18] - The rare earth market is facing tightening supply due to export bans in Vietnam and ongoing geopolitical tensions, with China remaining the dominant supplier [9][19] - Tin prices are under pressure from supply uncertainties in Myanmar and the DRC, with potential impacts on global supply chains [11][20] - Tungsten prices are expected to rise further due to ongoing supply tightness and strategic importance, with limited new production expected [12][21] - Uranium supply is projected to remain tight, influenced by geopolitical factors and production delays, which may support higher prices [14][22] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt - Nickel prices are supported by supply constraints from Indonesia, with production quotas significantly reduced for 2026 [1][15] - Cobalt supply is expected to tighten further due to slow export processes in the DRC, leading to potential price increases [4][16] Antimony - Antimony prices are expected to remain strong due to supply constraints and recent production declines [5][17] Lithium - Lithium supply disruptions are anticipated, with high oil prices potentially increasing demand for lithium [7][18] Rare Earths - The rare earth market is tightening due to export bans and geopolitical tensions, with China maintaining a dominant position [9][19] Tin - Tin prices are pressured by supply uncertainties in Myanmar and the DRC, affecting global supply chains [11][20] Tungsten - Tungsten prices are expected to rise due to ongoing supply tightness and strategic importance [12][21] Uranium - Uranium supply is projected to remain tight, influenced by geopolitical factors and production delays [14][22]