申万宏源2026年春季A股投资策略：为第二阶段上涨蓄力，时代资产不退场

Key Insights - The report emphasizes the resilience of the A-share market amidst geopolitical tensions, highlighting China's proactive response and adaptability to external shocks, which is reflected in the ongoing pricing adjustments based on the long-term competitive landscape [3][19]. - It identifies two categories of inflation assets: new economy and strategic resources, indicating that capital expenditure in the new economy is on the rise, creating a scarcity-driven demand expansion, while strategic resource security is becoming a necessity in the context of great power competition [3][20]. - The report outlines the current market phase as a transition from the first stage of an upward trend to a consolidation phase, suggesting that the A-share market is experiencing a high valuation period with limited space for further valuation increases [3][8]. Group 1: Inflation Assets - New economy capital expenditure is increasing, indicating a scarcity-driven demand expansion, with ongoing optimization of technological routes leading to high-elasticity investment opportunities in specific sectors [3][20]. - Strategic resource inflation is supported by rising mining costs, demand increments from the new economy, and geopolitical factors, suggesting a revaluation of resource prices [3][26]. - The report highlights the potential for investment opportunities arising from the spillover of new economy inflation into traditional sectors, such as fiberglass and optical cables, as traditional industries adapt to new economic conditions [3][31]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The A-share market is currently in a high valuation zone, indicating that the space for discovering new investment directions is narrowing, and the market is transitioning to a consolidation phase [3][8]. - The report suggests that the second phase of the upward trend may begin in the second half of 2026, contingent on the absence of significant industry disruptions, with a potential extension into the first half of 2027 [3][8][34]. - Historical experiences from previous market cycles indicate that the consolidation phase is characterized by limited new opportunities, with a focus on extending existing main asset lines and expanding macro narratives [3][34].