利率市场周度回顾：超长端大幅上行，曲线进一步熊陡化-20260315

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The yield of the 10Y Treasury bond active bond 250016 rose 2.90BP to 1.8170% compared with the previous week [2]. - The important concerns for the bond market next week are the release of core macro - data and the large supply of interest - rate bonds [3]. - The capital interest rate rebounded slightly, but the overall liquidity remained in a loose and balanced state, and the market leverage declined slightly from a high level. The central bank continued to net withdraw liquidity in the open market this week, and the capital interest rate center rose slightly compared with last week, while the overall liquidity was still loose and abundant. Meanwhile, institutional trading remained active, and the trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased slightly from a high level [4]. - In terms of primary bond supply, the net financing scale of interest - rate bonds and certificates of deposit decreased significantly this week, showing an overall net repayment state. The net financing scale of interest - rate bonds decreased mainly due to the obvious reduction in the issuance of Treasury bonds and local bonds. The net financing scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit turned from positive to negative, with the net repayment scale of large - bank certificates of deposit increasing further and the net financing of joint - stock banks decreasing significantly [4]. - In terms of secondary market operation, the long - end was significantly pressured under the influence of a significant increase in the inflation center and export data far exceeding expectations, while the short - end continued to decline benefiting from the stable and loose capital market, and the yield curve steepened significantly [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Money Market 3.1.1. Open - market Liquidity Injection - The central bank net withdrew 25.11 billion yuan of liquidity from the open market this week (2026.03.9 - 2026.03.13). Specifically, the injection was 17.65 billion yuan from reverse repurchases, and the withdrawals were 27.76 billion yuan from reverse - repurchase maturities and 15 billion yuan from the maturity of treasury cash fixed deposits. As of March 13, 2026, the balance of 7 - day reverse repurchases was 17.65 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.11 billion yuan compared with the previous week [11]. 3.1.2. Capital Market Operation - In terms of capital operation, the central bank continued to withdraw liquidity in the open market, and the capital interest rate center rose slightly compared with last week, but the overall liquidity was still loose and abundant. As of March 13, 2026, DR007 was 1.46%, up 4.67BP from the previous week, and R007 was 1.50%, up 1.13BP from the previous week. In terms of leverage, institutional trading remained active, and the trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased slightly from a high level. As of March 13, 2026, the trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase (5DMA basis) was 8.57 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.07 trillion yuan from the previous week [19]. 3.2. Cash Bond Market 3.2.1. Primary Supply - The total net supply scale of interest - rate bonds this week was - 8.6786 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.5065 billion yuan compared with the previous week. The cumulative net supply scale of interest - rate bonds this year as of this week was 265.264 billion yuan, among which Treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and local bonds were 53.386 billion yuan, 2.003 billion yuan, and 209.875 billion yuan respectively. The net financing scale of certificates of deposit this week was - 11.306 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.464 billion yuan compared with the previous week. Specifically, the net supply scale of Treasury bonds was - 29.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.3 billion yuan; the net supply scale of policy - financial bonds was 14.4 billion yuan, an increase of 28.095 billion yuan; the net supply scale of local bonds was 6.3214 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.3015 billion yuan. The net financing scale of state - owned banks was - 14.958 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.827 billion yuan; the net financing scale of joint - stock banks was 3.652 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.637 billion yuan [33]. 3.2.2. Secondary Operation - Absolute Level: The long - end performed worse than the short - end, and the interest - rate curve continued to steepen. For example, the yield curves of Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds tended to steepen. The yields of 10Y and 30Y Treasury bonds increased significantly, the yield of 20Y China Development Bank bonds increased significantly, the yields of local bonds at all maturities increased, and the yields of certificates of deposit at all maturities decreased slightly [38][41][49]. - Term Spread: Most of the long - end term spreads widened, and the spread between 9M/1Y certificates of deposit compressed. For example, the 10Y - 1Y Treasury bond term spread and the 30Y - 10Y Treasury bond term spread widened significantly, while the 1Y - 9M AAA certificate of deposit term spread narrowed [48][54]. - Variety Spread: All variety spreads narrowed this week. For example, the 1Y and 10Y China Development Bank/Treasury bond variety spreads, the 30Y local bond/Treasury bond variety spread, and the 1Y certificate of deposit/China Development Bank bond variety spread all narrowed [57]. - Overseas Spread: The 10Y China - US spread widened, and the 1Y China - US spread narrowed [62]. 3.3. Next Week's Bond Market Matters - On March 16 (Monday), 1 - 2 month economic data will be released, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the economic recovery at the beginning of the year exceeds market expectations. - On March 20 (Friday), the 3 - month LPR quote will be released, which is likely to be the same as the previous month. - On March 19 (Thursday), the issuance scale of local bonds over 10Y is about 7.26 billion yuan, and it is necessary to pay attention to the primary issuance situation. - In addition, there are specific situations of open - market operation maturities, Treasury bond supply, and local bond supply every day next week [3][4][66][68].