钢材周报20260316：成本支撑增强，钢价震荡偏强-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The cost support for steel prices has strengthened, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1成材 (Finished Products) - Supply: The operating rate of electric furnaces has significantly increased. The weekly output of rebar from major steel mills nationwide was 1.953 million tons (+219,900 tons), and the weekly output of hot-rolled coils was 2.9526 million tons (-58,500 tons) [5]. - Demand: Steel demand has rebounded. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 1.7681 million tons (+785,800 tons), and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils was 1.9536 million tons (+137,900 tons) [5]. - Inventory: Rebar inventory continued to accumulate, but the growth rate slowed down, while hot-rolled coil inventory remained at a high level. The total rebar inventory was 8.9417 million tons (+184,900 tons), the social inventory was 6.5455 million tons (+168,000 tons), and the steel mill inventory was 2.3962 million tons (+16,900 tons). The total hot-rolled coil inventory was 4.7159 million tons (-1,000 tons), the social inventory was 3.8231 million tons (+7,000 tons), and the steel mill inventory was 892,800 tons (-8,000 tons) [5]. - Basis: As of March 13, the basis of the rebar main contract was 108 yuan/ton (+6 yuan/ton), and the basis of the hot-rolled coil main contract was -25 yuan/ton (-25 yuan/ton) [5]. - Summary: The profitability rate of steel mills was 41.13%, a 3.03% increase from the previous week, and at a low level compared to the same period last year. The molten iron output was 2.212 million tons, a decrease of 63,900 tons from the previous week. The blast furnace operating rate was 78.34%, a 0.63% increase from the previous week, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 82.29%, a 2.4% decrease from the previous week. The electric furnace operating rate was 57.34%, a 32.63% increase from the previous week, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 50.44%, a 29.73% increase from the previous week. Electric furnaces and blast furnaces have resumed production, with a significant increase in the electric furnace operating rate and an increase in short-process production. Rebar production has increased significantly, and it is expected to continue to rise. Demand continues to recover but remains at a low level. The resumption rate of downstream construction sites and the capital availability rate have increased compared to the previous week. As of March 11 (the 23rd day of the first lunar month), the resumption rate of 10,692 construction sites nationwide was 42.5%, a 19-percentage-point increase from the previous week and a 5.2-percentage-point decrease compared to the same period last year. The capital availability rate was 42.8%, a 7.4-percentage-point increase from the previous week and a 0.8-percentage-point decrease compared to the same period last year. Inventory continues to grow, but the growth rate has narrowed, and it is at a high level compared to the same period last year. Hot-rolled coil production has decreased and is at a low level compared to the same period last year. Demand has rebounded, and daily trading volume has increased significantly. Inventory is at a high level, with a slight decrease from the previous week, showing an inflection point. Steel exports are under pressure, with a cumulative export of 15.59 million tons from January to February, an 8% decrease compared to the same period last year [5]. 3.2螺纹热卷主要地区现货价格 (Spot Prices of Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils in Major Regions) As of March 13, the average spot price of rebar HRB400E 20MM in major cities nationwide was 3,339 yuan/ton, a 39-yuan/ton increase from the previous week. The average spot price of hot-rolled coils 4.75MM nationwide was 3,307 yuan/ton, a 42-yuan/ton increase from the previous week [8]. 3.3原料 (Raw Materials) - Raw Material Prices: The price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke was 1,470 yuan/ton, the price of main coking coal in Luliang was 1,483 yuan/ton, and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 798 yuan/ton. The price of 61.5% PB powder increased by 34 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, while the prices of quasi-primary metallurgical coke and main coking coal remained unchanged [13]. - Molten Iron Output and Electric Furnace Operating Rate: Molten iron output has significantly decreased, while the electric furnace operating rate continues to increase [15]. 3.4钢厂盈利率 (Profitability Rate of Steel Mills) The profitability rate of steel mills has increased [20]. 3.5唐山高炉开工率 (Tangshan Blast Furnace Operating Rate) As of March 6, the Tangshan blast furnace operating rate was 92.48%, an 8.27% increase from the previous week [25]. 3.6螺纹产量 (Rebar Production) As of March 13, rebar production increased by 219,900 tons compared to the previous week. In terms of process, long-process production increased by 46,700 tons, and short-process production increased by 173,200 tons [32]. 3.7热卷产量 (Hot-Rolled Coil Production) Hot-rolled coil production decreased by 58,500 tons compared to the previous week [31]. 3.8需求 (Demand) - Rebar Demand: As of March 13, the weekly average trading volume of rebar was 97,400 tons, and trading volume remained at a low level [40]. - Hot-Rolled Coil Demand: As of March 13, the weekly average trading volume of hot-rolled coils was 51,700 tons. The downstream cold-rolled production was 882,700 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons from the previous week, but at a high level compared to the same period last year [45]. 3.9主要钢材品种库存 (Inventory of Major Steel Products) As of March 13, the Tangshan billet inventory was 654,000 tons, a 57,000-ton increase from the previous week. The inventory of major steel products was 14.2294 million tons, a 202,000-ton increase from the previous week [48]. 3.10钢材出口 (Steel Exports) According to customs data, steel exports in December were 1.13 million tons, a 132,000-ton increase from the previous month. From January to December, the cumulative steel exports were 119 million tons, a 7.5% increase compared to the same period last year. Hot-rolled coil exports in December were 180,480 tons [58]. 3.11汽车产销 (Automobile Production and Sales) According to Steel Union data, automobile production in February was 1.672 million vehicles, a decrease of 777,900 vehicles from the previous month. Automobile sales were 1.805 million tons, a decrease of 541,500 tons from the previous month. New energy vehicle production in February was 694,000 vehicles, a decrease of 347,000 vehicles from the previous month. New energy vehicle sales were 765,000 tons, a decrease of 180,000 tons from the previous month [62]. 3.12房地产数据 (Real Estate Data) From January to February, national real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 6.1 percentage points. Specifically, from January to February, the cumulative new housing construction area was 50.84 million square meters, a 23.1% decrease year-on-year. The housing completion area was 63.2 million square meters, a 27.9% decrease year-on-year. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 92.93 million square meters, a 13.5% decrease year-on-year. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 20.2% year-on-year, with a decline of 7.6%. The cumulative capital available to development enterprises was 1.3 trillion yuan, a 16.5% decrease year-on-year [66].