NJBK(SH:601009) Changjiang Securities·2026-03-16 10:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9] Core Insights - Nanjing Bank has been affected by funding factors since the beginning of the year and is currently the only quality city commercial bank that has not turned positive YTD. It is expected to benefit from the current government leverage cycle [2][6] - The bank's investment income ratio has significantly decreased, and it is projected that interest income will continue to drive revenue growth in 2026 [2] - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is expected to remain stable at 0.83% in 2025, with improvements in the generation rate of non-performing loans [2] - Major shareholders, including BNP Paribas and Jiangsu provincial state-owned assets, have been increasing their stakes, with Jiangsu Communications holding expected to exceed 15% [2] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Nanjing Bank is currently the only quality city commercial bank that has not turned positive YTD due to funding factors [2] - The bank's PB valuation is low at 0.70x for 2026, indicating significant room for recovery [2] Financial Performance - The bank's total revenue is expected to achieve a high single-digit growth rate driven by interest income in 2026 [2] - The bank's investment income ratio has decreased from 42% in 2024 to around 30% in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a more stable revenue structure [2] Loan Growth and Asset Quality - Nanjing Bank is expected to achieve a loan growth rate of 12%-13% in 2026, supported by the strong economic growth target of 5% for Jiangsu province [2] - The NPL ratio is projected to remain stable at 0.83% in 2025, with a focus on low-risk government projects in the corporate loan portfolio [2] Shareholder Activity - Major shareholders have been actively increasing their stakes, with BNP Paribas and Jiangsu provincial state-owned assets leading the way [2] - Jiangsu Communications is expected to increase its stake to over 15%, which could lead to an additional investment of 8 billion yuan [2]