DiDi(US:DIDIY) GF SECURITIES·2026-03-17 02:36Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of $4.04 and a fair value of $6.25 per ADS [7][20]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Didi Chuxing is increasing its investment in international business while steadily improving domestic order volume and profit margins. The company's core platform transaction volume reached 4.844 billion orders, a year-on-year increase of 13.5% [8][9]. - The revenue forecast for 2024-2028 shows a steady growth trajectory, with total revenue expected to reach approximately 298.19 billion RMB by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 9.21% [3][13]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue Projections: - 2024: 206.8 billion RMB - 2025: 226.7 billion RMB - 2026: 249.0 billion RMB - 2027: 273.0 billion RMB - 2028: 298.2 billion RMB - Net Profit Projections: - 2024: 1.26 billion RMB - 2025: 0.99 billion RMB - 2026: -1.45 billion RMB - 2027: 5.54 billion RMB - 2028: 8.80 billion RMB - Non-IFRS EBITA: - 2024: 4.33 billion RMB - 2025: 3.67 billion RMB - 2026: -1.06 billion RMB - 2027: 7.40 billion RMB - 2028: 15.37 billion RMB [3][8][13]. Business Segments - Domestic Ride-Hailing Business: - Expected to maintain a stable growth rate with a projected GTV of 3,605 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase. Revenue from this segment is anticipated to reach 2,184 billion RMB in 2026 [9][10]. - International Business: - The international segment is expected to grow significantly, with GTV projected to reach 1,698 billion RMB in 2026, a 45% year-on-year increase. Revenue from international operations is forecasted to be 197 billion RMB in 2026 [10][11]. - Other Businesses: - This includes autonomous driving and energy sectors, with revenue expected to grow to 108 billion RMB by 2026, reflecting a 10% growth rate [11][12]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs a segmented valuation approach, assigning a 13x EV/EBITDA multiple to the domestic ride-hailing business, a 0.1x P/GTV multiple to international operations, and a 0.1x PS multiple to other business segments. This results in a total fair value of approximately 311.27 billion USD (2,147.75 billion RMB) for the company [20][21].