铁矿石周报：补库需求支撑，盘面震荡反弹-20260317

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the iron ore market is supported by factors such as the BHP restriction disturbance, the expectation of resumption of production and replenishment of inventory, and the increase in shipping costs due to the tense international situation. In the short - term, it will maintain a volatile and upward - trending operation. The overall supply pressure still exists, while the demand is expected to increase after the end of important meetings, with the iron water output having the potential to rise. The port inventory remains at a high level, and the steel mill inventory is at a low level. The recommended strategy is a volatile rebound [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Price - The spot price of iron ore shows a volatile rebound [6]. - As of March 16, 2026, the spot price of Karara powder was 948, up 39 from last week, with the discounted futures price at 898, up 42 from last week; the spot price of PB powder was 792, up 15 from last week, with the discounted futures price at 842, up 16 from last week; the spot price of Super Special powder was 672, up 10 from last week, with the discounted futures price at 873, up 11 from last week. The high - medium grade spread was 156, and the medium - low grade spread was 120. The optimal delivery product was 62.5 Newman powder [28]. Spread - The spread between high - and medium - grade ores widened, while the spread between medium - and low - grade ores slightly shrank. The spread between PB powder and Macfarlane powder slightly increased [11][15]. - The 5 - 9 spread rebounded from a low level, and the basis of the 05 contract slightly declined [19]. - The ratio of steel to iron ore slightly declined from a low level, and the ratio of iron ore to coking coal slightly rebounded from a high level [29]. Supply - From March 9 to March 15, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3.0488 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 151,000 tons. The shipping volume from Australia was 1.8753 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 122,100 tons; the shipping volume from Brazil was 571,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,900 tons; the shipping volume of non - mainstream ores was 1.0925 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 64,600 tons. The arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2.215 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 394,900 tons [4]. - As of March 13, the daily average output of iron concentrate from 186 domestic mines was 46,110 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,500 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 59%, a week - on - week increase of 0.95%. The inventory of mine concentrate was 89,280 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,790 tons [4]. - The shipping volume of FMG to China increased significantly, and that of BHP increased slightly. The shipping volume of RT decreased slightly, and that of VALE increased slightly. The shipping volume of Australian ore to China increased slightly, while that of Brazilian ore decreased slightly [39][43][47]. - The shipping cost continued to rise, and the arrival volume decreased and remained at a medium level [51][55]. Demand - In the week of March 13, the daily average iron water output was 221,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63,900 tons. After the end of important meetings, the resumption of blast furnaces in steel mills was mostly concentrated at the end of the research period, and the increase in iron water output is expected to be reflected next week. As steel mills gradually resume production, there is a rigid demand for raw material ore procurement [4]. - The profit of steel mill blast furnaces slightly declined [64]. Inventory - The inventory of imported ores increased slightly this period. The number of ships at the port decreased by 2 to 110. The congestion at the port decreased slightly, the arrival volume decreased, the port clearance volume increased slightly, the port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill inventory decreased slightly, maintaining a low - inventory strategy [4]. - The inventory of Australian ore at 45 ports increased from a high level, while the inventory of Brazilian ore decreased slightly. The inventory of coarse powder remained at a high level, and the inventory of lump ore decreased slightly. The steel mill inventory remained at a low level [83][91][99].