Jiayou International(SH:603871) GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-03-17 08:48Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the logistics and warehousing industry [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that the business turning point for the China-Mongolia logistics sector has arrived, with the steady recovery of traffic at the Ganqimaodu port, stabilization of short-distance freight rates, and a continuous rebound in the price of Mongolian coking coal, collectively driving the performance of JIAYOU International into a recovery phase [3] Summary by Relevant Sections - Traffic Recovery at Ganqimaodu Port: From March 2 to March 5, the average daily traffic at Ganqimaodu port was 1,405 vehicles per day (excluding closed days), representing a week-on-week increase of 7.7% and a year-on-year increase of 108.9%. Cumulatively, as of 2026, the total traffic at Ganqimaodu port reached 66,087 vehicles, up 38.3% year-on-year [5] - Significant Growth in Import and Export Freight Volume: As of March 3, 2026, the freight volume increased by 31% year-on-year to 8.2834 million tons. By the end of Q3 2025, the cumulative import and export volume at Ganqimaodu port was 30.0266 million tons, with a narrowing year-on-year decline, and an annual total of 43.0585 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% [5] - Stabilization of Short-Distance Freight Rates: In the first half of 2025, short-distance freight rates averaged a year-on-year decrease of 34.5% due to fluctuations in domestic demand for Mongolian coal. However, with demand recovering, the average short-distance freight rate stabilized in the range of 60-70 yuan/ton. As of March 2 to March 5, 2026, the average short-distance freight rate was 65 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period but up 8.3% year-on-year [5] - Recovery in China-Mongolia Business and Improvement in Profitability: JIAYOU International reported revenue of 2.486 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.61%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 313 million yuan, down 4.90% year-on-year. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 6.570 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.40%, and a net profit of 874 million yuan, down 19.72% year-on-year. The increase in revenue and the narrowing decline in net profit were primarily due to the recovery of cross-border business and rising prices of coking coal [5] - Long-term Competitive Advantage: The company has established a strong competitive advantage by strategically positioning itself in core logistics infrastructure at the port and advancing an integrated "goods and trade" business model, effectively consolidating its leading position and market share in the China-Mongolia business [5]