CMSK(SZ:001979) CAITONG SECURITIES·2026-03-17 12:35Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 154.73 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 13.53% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.02 billion yuan, down 74.65% year-on-year [8] - The decline in revenue and profit was attributed to a decrease in the scale of revenue recognition and gross margin, along with reduced investment income [8] - The company focused on core cities, achieving a sales area of 7.16 million square meters, a decrease of 23.5% year-on-year, but the average sales price increased by 16.8% to 27,000 yuan per square meter [8] - Investment in core cities increased, with total land acquisition area of 4.4 million square meters and total land cost of 93.8 billion yuan, a 93% increase year-on-year [8] - The company maintained a healthy financial position with a net cash flow from operating activities of 9.693 billion yuan and a cash balance of 86.127 billion yuan at the end of 2025 [8] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2026-2028 is 1.31 billion, 1.63 billion, and 2.00 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 66.3x, 53.3x, and 43.4x [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue forecast for 2024A is 178.95 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2.3%, followed by 154.73 billion yuan in 2025A, a decline of 13.5% [7] - Net profit for 2024A is projected at 4.04 billion yuan, with a significant drop to 1.02 billion yuan in 2025A, reflecting a net profit growth rate of -74.6% [7] - The company's gross margin for 2025 was 15.33%, a slight decrease of 0.25 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 1.0% in 2025 to 2.0% by 2028 [7]