Guotai Haitong Securities(SH:601211) Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2026-03-17 13:57Report Overview - The report analyzes the impact of the Iran geopolitical conflict on major domestic futures varieties, covering aspects such as liquidity risk, market expectations, and volatility changes [3]. - Due to the continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the supply gap of crude oil is relatively clear, with an upward - trending and volatile market. For downstream chemical products, most commodity valuations have reached relatively high levels, and chasing high prices is not recommended. Crude oil prices also affect the price of the oil and fat sector [3]. Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report's overall industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Views by Category Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: With the continuous blockade of the Strait, the supply gap is clear, and the trend is upward with fluctuations [8]. - Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The supply - demand contradictions in the near - term have been resolved by previous inventories and near - end supplies, and the market has entered a short - term adjustment phase [8]. - P - Xylene, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, and Bottle Chips: Short - term valuations are in place, and chasing high prices is not advisable [8]. - Polypropylene: Geopolitical risks continue to escalate. The supply of crude oil and propane is reduced due to shipping stagnation in the Strait of Hormuz, which has affected domestic supply and provided support for near - end prices [8]. - Polyethylene: The continuous strength of crude oil prices provides cost support. The supply of upstream cracking raw materials may be severely tightened, and domestic cracking operations are reducing production, leading to a stronger near - end of derivatives [8]. - Container Shipping Index: The spot price of Maersk increased by $400 to $2700/FEU in the first week of April (a 10% increase in the central price), and the valuation center of 2604 has shifted to 2000 - 2200 points. The far - month is priced according to seasonality [8]. - Caustic Soda: The driving force is upward, but the short - term valuation is slightly high. Affected by the Middle East situation, overseas caustic soda production has been passively reduced, and the export price has increased significantly. However, the futures price has a large premium, and overseas device dynamics and Chinese export orders need to be continuously monitored [8]. - Polyvinyl Chloride: Affected by the Iran situation, the production of chlor - alkali in South Korea and other places has been reduced, and the domestic production capacity of ethylene - based PVC has also decreased. The future Asian ethylene - based production capacity faces production reduction pressure. The market focus is on the impact duration of the Middle East situation [8]. - LPG: The supply problem in the Middle East remains unresolved, and there is support at the lower end. Attention should be paid to cost - end changes [8]. - Propylene: The import of raw material propane is blocked, and PDH devices are expected to shut down centrally. PL is expected to rise further due to cost increase and supply tightening. Attention should be paid to cost - end changes [8]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: The outer - market US soybeans fluctuate greatly due to events such as China - US economic and trade consultations and the postponement of Trump's visit to China. The domestic soybean meal market sentiment is stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the further progress of China - US trade events [9]. - Palm Oil: The trading of palm oil's energy attribute continues. The long - term high price of crude oil is likely to lead to a trend - like increase in the palm oil market after fundamental resonance [9]. - Soybean Oil: The trading of the energy attribute in the oil and fat sector continues. However, attention should be paid to the impact of the Iran event on China - US economic and trade consultations. The fluctuation of US soybeans may become a resistance for soybean oil to follow the upward trend [9]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: The market is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. The escalation of the US - Iran conflict in the near - term has increased energy costs and disrupted spot procurement, driving the price rebound of near - end iron ore contracts. The long - term impact is small. Strategies include focusing on the 5 - 9 positive spread of iron ore and selling call options on the 09 contract with an exercise price of 850 yuan/ton [10].