Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a rating of "Buy" for the company, with a target price of 178.68 CNY [5][11]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a comprehensive service provider in the computing power and smart city sectors, demonstrating strong strategic foresight and building core ecological barriers. It benefits from high-quality technical services and full-chain integration capabilities, with significant overseas expansion results and robust profit resilience, indicating substantial long-term investment value [2][11]. - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the AI wave, with projected revenues of 21.76 billion CNY, 32.17 billion CNY, and 44.29 billion CNY for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 0.37 billion CNY, 2.11 billion CNY, and 3.68 billion CNY for the same period [18][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 771 million CNY in 2023, decreasing to 658 million CNY in 2024, before surging to 2.176 billion CNY in 2025, 3.217 billion CNY in 2026, and 4.429 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 230.8% in 2025 [4][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover from a loss of 76 million CNY in 2024 to a profit of 37 million CNY in 2025, 211 million CNY in 2026, and 368 million CNY in 2027 [4][11]. - The company’s gross margin is anticipated to improve from 12.2% in 2024 to 26.2% by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [17][11]. Business Segments - The computing power service segment is the largest revenue contributor, expected to generate 10.84 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, accounting for 91.28% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 11.75% [15][11]. - The smart city business, while historically a major revenue source, is projected to contribute 1.04 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, representing 8.72% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 16.02% [16][11]. Valuation Analysis - The report employs both PE and PS valuation methods, concluding a reasonable valuation of 274.3 billion CNY based on a cautious approach, with a target PE of 130 times for 2026 [19][23][26]. - The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge in the AI computing power market, with a significant increase in market share and profitability anticipated due to its strong order backlog and partnerships with major tech firms [25][26].
宏景科技（301396）：首次覆盖报告：算力转型成效凸显，AI浪潮驱动高增长