宏景科技：首次覆盖报告：算力转型成效凸显，AI浪潮驱动高增长-20260318

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company, with a target price of 178.68 CNY [5][11]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a comprehensive service provider in the computing power and smart city sectors, with a strategic transformation that builds core ecological barriers. It benefits from high growth driven by the AI wave, showcasing strong profitability resilience and significant growth potential, indicating long-term investment value [2][11]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 21.76 billion CNY, 32.17 billion CNY, and 44.29 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 0.37 billion CNY, 2.11 billion CNY, and 3.68 billion CNY respectively [18][22]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 771 million CNY in 2023, decreasing to 658 million CNY in 2024, before surging to 2,176 million CNY in 2025, 3,217 million CNY in 2026, and 4,429 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 230.8% in 2025 [4][18]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 42 million CNY in 2023, with a loss of 76 million CNY in 2024, followed by profits of 37 million CNY, 211 million CNY, and 368 million CNY in the subsequent years [4][18]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 12.2% in 2024 to 26.2% by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [17][18]. Revenue Breakdown - The computing power service segment is anticipated to be the largest revenue contributor, with expected revenues of 10.84 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, accounting for 91.28% of total revenue, and a gross margin of 11.75% [15][17]. - The smart city business, while historically significant, is projected to contribute less as the focus shifts to computing power services, with revenues expected to stabilize around 6-7% growth from 2025 to 2027 [16][17]. Valuation Analysis - The report employs both PE and PS valuation methods, concluding a reasonable valuation of 274.3 billion CNY based on a cautious approach, with a PE of 130 times for 2026 [19][23][26]. - The company is positioned in a high-growth segment, with a significant increase in market share and a strong order backlog, enhancing its growth certainty compared to peers [25][26].