万辰集团（300972）：25Q4零食量贩业务净利率创新高

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit margin for its snack wholesale business, reaching a new high in Q4 2025. The net profit margin for the snack wholesale business increased by 3.0 percentage points to 5.7% [7][9] - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 51.46 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 59.2%, with a net profit of RMB 1.34 billion, up 358.1% year-on-year, exceeding the forecast range [7] - The company is expected to continue its positive same-store sales trend in 2026, supported by the expansion of non-snack categories, store operations optimization, and instant retail layout [7][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 51,459 million, with a year-on-year growth of 59.17%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach RMB 1,345 million, reflecting a growth of 358.09% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at RMB 7.03, with a return on equity (ROE) of 104.18% [6] Store Expansion and Operations - The company opened 2,949 new stores in the second half of 2025, bringing the total to 18,314 stores, with a year-on-year increase of 62% in average store count [8] - The company closed 602 stores in 2025, resulting in a closure rate of 3.3%, which is considered low in the chain retail industry [8] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for Q4 increased by 2.8 percentage points to 14.2%, marking a new quarterly high. The gross margins for the snack wholesale and mushroom businesses were 13.0% and 29.2%, respectively [9] - The company managed to reduce its selling expense ratio by 1.4 percentage points to 3.2% in Q4, contributing to improved profitability [9] Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its product categories, including low-temperature short-shelf-life food and beverages, to enhance store efficiency and customer base [10] - Efforts to improve supply chain efficiency and brand building are expected to further enhance profitability in the medium to long term [10] Valuation - The target price for the company is set at RMB 280, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 23.5x for 2026, reflecting an upward adjustment from the previous target of RMB 276 [11]