亚朵：看好品牌心智强化赋能长期成长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $53.98 [7]. Core Insights - The company reported Q4 2025 net revenue of 2.788 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.8%, and a net profit of 478 million yuan, up 44.7%, achieving a net profit margin of 17.2% [1]. - For the full year 2025, net revenue reached 9.79 billion yuan, a 35.1% increase year-on-year, and adjusted EBITDA was 2.481 billion yuan, reflecting a 40.0% growth [1]. - The company has successfully completed its "Two Thousand Good Stores" strategy and is now initiating a new three-year strategy focused on "Experience and Brand Leadership" [1]. - The company projects a total net revenue growth of 20-24% for 2026, driven by its hotel and retail segments [1]. Revenue Performance - Q4 hotel RevPAR, ADR, and occupancy rates were 335.7 yuan, 426.4 yuan, and 76.1%, showing a slight decline in RevPAR but a positive growth in ADR [2]. - Same-store RevPAR for Q4 was 334.4 yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 4.0% [2]. - New hotel series showed strong performance, with RevPAR exceeding 380 yuan for Atour and over 950 yuan for Saha [2]. Franchise and Network Expansion - The company achieved its goal of operating 2,015 hotels by the end of Q4, with 1,996 being franchises [3]. - In Q4, the company opened 97 new hotels and closed 30, maintaining a focus on operational quality [3]. - The development pipeline includes 779 hotels, indicating robust project reserves [3]. Retail Business Growth - Retail revenue in Q4 was 1.166 billion yuan, a 52.4% increase year-on-year, with total retail revenue for 2025 reaching 3.671 billion yuan, up 67.0% [4]. - The retail business has optimized its cost structure, reducing the operating cost ratio by 3.0 percentage points to 47.4% [4]. - The company has distributed approximately $108 million in cash dividends and repurchased about $46 million in stock [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for 2026-2027 net profit is adjusted to 2.013 billion yuan and 2.366 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 4.2% and 8.5% from previous estimates [5]. - The adjusted net profit for 2026-2027 is projected at 2.176 billion yuan and 2.557 billion yuan, with an EPS forecast of 14.60, 17.36, and 20.39 yuan for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [5]. - The target price is based on a 26x PE ratio for 2026, reflecting a valuation adjustment from the previous target of $50.50 [5].