美棉价格持续走强，需求端催化显现

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the textile and apparel industry [6]. Core Insights - The price of American cotton has been rising continuously, driven by demand-side catalysts such as the National Development and Reform Commission's issuance of additional import cotton quotas and Sino-U.S. trade talks [2][5]. - The supply side is affected by a reduction in production from Brazil, with the current drought index in major U.S. cotton-producing areas at historical highs, necessitating close monitoring of planting conditions in the U.S. and China [2][5]. - The report continues to recommend leading yarn companies, Bailong Oriental and Tianhong International Group, as beneficiaries of the rising American cotton prices [2][5]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of March 17, the ICE No. 2 American cotton futures closed at 68.71 cents per pound, reflecting a 6.2% increase from the beginning of the week and a 7.0% increase compared to the average price in Q4 2025 [5]. - The increase is attributed to the issuance of an additional 300,000 tons of import cotton quotas by the National Development and Reform Commission and positive signals from U.S.-China trade negotiations regarding increased purchases of American agricultural products, including cotton [5]. Import Quotas - The additional import quota is 100,000 tons larger than the previous years' quotas for 2024 and 2025, indicating a response to the widening price gap between domestic and foreign cotton [5]. - The price difference between American cotton and Xinjiang cotton has expanded to 6,397 yuan per ton, with the Cotlook A and Xinjiang cotton price difference at 5,265 yuan per ton, both at near historical highs [5]. Trade Agreements - In February 2026, the U.S. reached trade agreements with Bangladesh and India, which will facilitate the use of American cotton in exports to the U.S. under zero tariffs, potentially boosting American cotton exports [5]. - China remains the largest importer of American cotton, accounting for nearly 30% of U.S. cotton exports in 2024, and any further procurement signals from China could enhance demand [5]. Supply Side Analysis - Brazil's cotton production is expected to decline by 6.9% in the 2025/26 season, with significant reductions in key states [5]. - The drought conditions in major U.S. cotton-producing states are severe, with historical drought indices recorded, particularly in Georgia, Arkansas, and Alabama [5].