Atour Lifestyle (US:ATAT) GF SECURITIES·2026-03-18 14:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of $37.03 and a fair value of $48.58 [6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to continue its trend of improvement, focusing on high-quality growth [3]. - Revenue for 2025 is projected to be RMB 97.9 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 35.1%, with retail revenue growing by 67% [11]. - The company aims to maintain a balanced strategy for Average Daily Rate (ADR) and occupancy rates, with expectations for RevPAR to continue improving [11]. Financial Projections - Revenue Forecast (in RMB million): - 2024A: 7,248 - 2025A: 9,790 - 2026E: 11,924 - 2027E: 14,134 - 2028E: 16,371 - Growth Rates (%): - 2024A: 55.3% - 2025A: 35.1% - 2026E: 21.8% - 2027E: 18.5% - 2028E: 15.8% [4]. - EBITDA Forecast (in RMB million): - 2024A: 1,043 - 2025A: 1,739 - 2026E: 2,343 - 2027E: 2,827 - 2028E: 3,381 [4]. - Non-GAAP Net Profit Forecast (in RMB million): - 2024A: 1,308 - 2025A: 1,753 - 2026E: 2,102 - 2027E: 2,506 - 2028E: 2,933 [4]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2024A: 9.47 - 2025A: 12.68 - 2026E: 15.21 - 2027E: 18.14 - 2028E: 21.22 [4]. Business Performance - The company opened 488 new stores in the year, with a total of 2,015 stores at year-end, representing a 24% year-over-year increase [11]. - The company plans to maintain its store opening targets for 2026 at the same level as 2025, while reducing the number of closures [11]. - The adjusted net profit margin for Q4 2025 was 17.7%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-over-year [11].