巨子生物（02367）：业绩符合预期，期待重回增长趋势

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has reported its 2025 annual performance, achieving revenue of 5.519 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.915 billion yuan, down 7.2% year-on-year [2] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 1.2104 yuan per share, amounting to approximately 1.29 billion yuan [2] - The company is expected to return to a growth trend in 2026, driven by new product launches and improved channel structures [8] Revenue Summary - In 2025, the company's revenue was 5.519 billion yuan, with a breakdown by product category showing functional skincare products at 4.337 billion yuan (+0.8% YoY), medical dressings at 1.16 billion yuan (-4.8% YoY), and health food and others at 0.22 billion yuan (+17.9% YoY) [3] - By brand, revenue from Kefu Mei was 4.47 billion yuan (-1.6% YoY), Keli Jin at 0.918 billion yuan (+9.2% YoY), and others at 0.22 billion yuan (+17.9% YoY) [3] - Revenue by channel showed DTC online sales at 3.402 billion yuan (-5.2% YoY), e-commerce platform sales at 0.509 billion yuan (+34.8% YoY), offline sales at 0.225 billion yuan (+32.3% YoY), and distribution at 1.383 billion yuan (-1.5% YoY) [3] Profitability Summary - The company's gross margin for 2025 was 80.34%, a decrease of 1.76 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 34.70%, down 2.52 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company’s operating expenses ratio for 2025 was 41.92%, an increase of 1.02 percentage points year-on-year, with significant increases in sales expenses [5] Product and Channel Development - The company is focusing on product development and channel construction to drive high-quality brand growth, with plans to launch new products and expand into new markets [6][7] - The company is enhancing its online operations and expanding its offline store presence, including entry into overseas markets such as Singapore and Malaysia [7] Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 6.113 billion yuan, 6.932 billion yuan, and 7.821 billion yuan for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, with net profits of 1.950 billion yuan, 2.139 billion yuan, and 2.334 billion yuan for the same years [8][10] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 1.82 yuan, 2.00 yuan, and 2.18 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16, 14, and 13 [8][10]