巨子生物（02367）：短期调整不改长期逻辑，医美管线打开第二增长曲线

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4]. Core Insights - The company's short-term performance is impacted by public sentiment events and intensified industry competition, with projected revenue for 2025 at 55.19 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, and adjusted net profit at 19.60 billion, down 8.9% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of approximately 10% for 2026, with a slight decline in gross margin due to changes in product mix and rising raw material costs [2][4]. - The brand "可复美" generated revenue of 44.70 billion, a decrease of 1.6% year-on-year, while "可丽金" achieved revenue of 9.18 billion, an increase of 9.2% year-on-year, benefiting from online channel expansion and successful product upgrades [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue from direct sales channels was 41.35 billion, remaining stable year-on-year, accounting for 74.9% of total revenue, while distribution channel revenue was 13.83 billion, down 1.5% year-on-year [3]. - The gross margin for 2025 is projected at 80.3%, down 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 34.7%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company plans to launch multiple skincare products in 2026, aiming to revitalize the performance of its functional skincare segment [4]. Earnings Forecast and Financial Metrics - The earnings forecast for 2025 includes revenue of 55.19 billion and net profit of 19.60 billion, with projections for 2026 and 2027 showing revenue growth of 9.6% and 7.3%, respectively [5][18]. - The projected PE ratios for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 16, 15, and 14 times, respectively, reflecting adjustments due to public sentiment impacts and increased brand investment [4][5].