国药股份：母公司业绩稳健增长，现金流改善-20260322

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 34.86 [1][4]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2025 shows stable revenue growth, with a projected revenue of RMB 52.468 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline slightly by 0.2% to RMB 1.997 billion [1][2]. - The company's core business remains solid, with long-term growth logic intact despite short-term fluctuations in subsidiary performance. The report emphasizes the stability of the main business and investment income [1][4]. - The company has improved its operating cash flow significantly, reaching RMB 2.006 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.9% [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2025, the company’s revenue from its Beijing distribution business remains robust, while the revenue from the narcotic drug business is growing rapidly. However, some subsidiaries are under pressure due to intensified market competition and centralized procurement [1][2]. - The gross profit margin for 2025 is projected to be 6.59%, a decrease of 0.51 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a lower proportion of high-margin industrial business revenue and the impact of centralized procurement on wholesale business [3]. - The company’s net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 1.450 billion, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year, primarily due to losses from Guorui Pharmaceutical [2][4]. Future Projections - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2026, 2027, and 2028 is RMB 2.023 billion, RMB 2.076 billion, and RMB 2.137 billion respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 1.34%, 2.61%, and 2.92% [4][9]. - The report anticipates a stable growth trajectory for the company, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 2.68, RMB 2.75, and RMB 2.83 for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [4][9].