GPED(SZ:000429) GF SECURITIES·2026-03-23 11:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the short-term impact of road network diversion is evident, but the ongoing renovation and expansion projects are expected to solidify long-term value [1] - The company has maintained a high dividend policy, proposing a cash dividend of 6.04 yuan per 10 shares for 2025, which reflects a 70% payout ratio of net profit attributable to shareholders [7] - Despite short-term revenue declines due to road network changes, the core asset renovation and expansion are progressing steadily, indicating strong future growth potential [7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 4.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.19%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.80 billion yuan, an increase of 15.31% [7] - The EBITDA for 2025 is projected at 3.69 billion yuan, with a slight decline in operating revenue expected in 2024 and 2025, followed by a gradual increase from 2026 onwards [6] - The company’s net profit for 2026 is estimated to be 1.56 billion yuan, with a projected EPS of 0.75 yuan per share [6][10] Revenue and Growth Forecast - The report forecasts a revenue growth rate of -6.3% for 2024, -2.2% for 2025, and a gradual recovery to 2.0% by 2028 [10] - The net profit growth rate is expected to be -4.4% in 2024, followed by a recovery to 3.3% by 2028 [10] Financial Ratios - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to be 19.7 in 2024, decreasing to 15.8 by 2028, indicating improving valuation over time [6] - The ROE is expected to decline slightly from 14.9% in 2024 to 12.8% in 2028, reflecting a stable but cautious growth outlook [6][10]