Jiayou International(SH:603871) GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-03-24 02:01Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the logistics and warehousing industry, specifically for the company 嘉友国际 [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the 中蒙 business has reached a turning point, with the 甘其毛都 port's daily traffic steadily recovering, short-distance freight rates stabilizing and increasing, and the price of Mongolian coking coal continuing to rebound, collectively driving 嘉友国际's performance into a recovery phase [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Port Traffic - The daily traffic at 甘其毛都 port averaged 1,351 vehicles per day from March 16 to March 22, 2026, which is a decrease of 2.8% week-on-week but an increase of 55.7% year-on-year. Cumulatively, 76,905 vehicles have passed through the port in 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.8% [3]. Freight Volume - The import and export freight volume at 甘其毛都 port has shown significant year-on-year growth, with a total freight volume of 10.24 million tons as of March 15, 2026, marking a 35% increase. By the end of Q3 2025, the cumulative import and export volume reached 30.03 million tons, with a narrowing year-on-year decline, and an expected total of 43.06 million tons for the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% [3]. Freight Rates - Short-distance freight rates have stabilized and are on the rise. In the first half of 2025, the average short-distance freight rate was down 34.5% year-on-year due to fluctuations in domestic demand for Mongolian coal. However, as demand has rebounded, the average short-distance freight rate has stabilized at 65 RMB/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 8.3% noted from March 16 to March 20, 2026 [3]. Financial Performance - 嘉友国际 reported revenue of 2.486 billion RMB in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.61%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 313 million RMB, down 4.90% year-on-year. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 6.570 billion RMB, a slight increase of 0.40%, with a net profit of 874 million RMB, down 19.72% year-on-year. The revenue increase and narrowing net profit decline are attributed to the recovery of 中蒙 cross-border business and rising coking coal prices [3]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that with the ongoing "anti-involution" policy, coal prices are stabilizing and increasing, leading to a gradual recovery in demand for Mongolian coal. This is expected to drive the daily traffic at 甘其毛都 port and short-distance freight rates upward, contributing to continuous improvement in the company's performance. The company is positioned to leverage its strategic advantage in core logistics infrastructure and advance its "integrated trade and logistics" business model, solidifying its leading position and market share in the 中蒙 business [3].