铁矿石周报：需求回升，盘面偏强震荡-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the iron ore market is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of iron ore is relatively abundant, but there are structural contradictions. After the Two Sessions, steel mills' blast furnaces resumed production, and the hot metal output increased significantly, leading to an increase in the rigid demand for raw material ore. Considering the high - level port inventories, the slight increase in steel mill inventories, and the tight geopolitical situation in the Middle East driving up shipping costs, the iron ore market is expected to maintain an oscillating and bullish trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the actual restocking situation of steel mills [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - From March 16th to March 22nd, the global iron ore shipping volume was 31.443 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 955,000 tons. Australian shipping volume was 19.957 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.204 million tons; Brazilian shipping volume was 5.489 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 227,000 tons; non - mainstream ore shipping volume was 11.611 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 686,000 tons. The total arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 22.716 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 566,000 tons [3] - As of March 20th, the daily average output of iron concentrate from 186 domestic mines was 475,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 141,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 60.81%, a week - on - week increase of 1.81%. The mine concentrate inventory was 1.0047 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 111,900 tons [3] - The shipping volume of FMG to China continued to rise, while that of BHP slightly declined. The shipping volumes of RT and VALE also slightly declined [42][46] - Ocean freight rates remained at a high level, and the arrival volume slightly increased, maintaining a medium level [50][54] Demand - In the week of March 20th, the daily average hot metal output was 2.2815 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 695,000 tons. After the Two Sessions, steel mills' blast furnaces gradually resumed production, and the increment of hot metal output significantly increased, leading to an increase in the rigid demand for raw material ore compared with the previous period [3] - The profit of steel mills' blast furnaces was relatively stable [63] Inventory - The inventory of imported ore slightly declined this period, with the number of ships at the port decreasing by 10 to 100. The port congestion continued to decrease, the arrival volume increased, the port inventory slightly declined but remained at a high level, and the steel mill inventory slightly increased, maintaining a low - inventory strategy, but the rigid - demand procurement increased [3] - The inventory of Australian ore at ports was at a high level, while the inventory of Brazilian ore slightly declined. The inventory of coarse powder at ports slowly decreased from a high level, and the inventory of lump ore was relatively stable [82][90] - The steel mill inventory slightly increased from a low level [99] Price and Spread - The spot price was oscillating with a bullish bias [5] - The spread between high - grade and medium - grade ores continued to widen, while the spread between medium - grade and low - grade ores narrowed. The spread between PB powder and Macfarlane powder rebounded [10][14] - The 5 - 9 spread slightly rebounded, and the basis of the 05 contract slightly declined [18] - The screw - to - ore ratio slightly declined from a low level, and the ore - to - coke ratio declined from a high level [28]