Micron Technology(US:MU) First Shanghai Securities·2026-03-25 13:25Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Micron Technology (MU) with a target price of $626, representing a potential upside of 54.27% from the current price of $404.35 [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in revenue driven by strong demand for memory products, particularly in the AI sector, with projected revenues for fiscal years 2026 to 2028 reaching $115.8 billion, $181.6 billion, and $191.2 billion respectively [4][5]. - Micron has signed its first five-year strategic long-term cooperation agreement, indicating a shift towards a more visible profit model in the storage industry [5]. - The company is expected to benefit from technological advancements in DRAM and NAND production, leading to improved efficiency and cost reductions [5]. Financial Summary - For fiscal year 2024, total revenue is projected at $25.1 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 61.6%. By fiscal year 2026, revenue is expected to surge to $115.8 billion, reflecting a staggering growth rate of 209.7% [4][8]. - GAAP net profit is forecasted to increase from $778 million in 2024 to $70.5 billion in 2026, with GAAP earnings per share rising from $0.7 to $63.0 over the same period [4][5]. - The gross margin is expected to improve significantly, with projections of 39.5% in 2026 and 40.5% in 2028 [11][12]. Segment Performance - DRAM revenue is anticipated to grow from $17.6 billion in 2024 to $90.6 billion in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 74.7% [7][8]. - HBM revenue is projected to increase from $0.4 billion in 2024 to $12.6 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 73.6% [7][8]. - NAND revenue is expected to rise from $7.2 billion in 2024 to $24.9 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 192.5% [8][12].