古茗（01364）：业绩高增超预期，供应链优势凸显

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][14]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 12.91 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 46.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.11 billion yuan, which is a 110.3% increase [2][5]. - The expansion of the store network and improvement in single-store efficiency are key drivers of revenue growth, with the total number of stores reaching 13,554 by the end of 2025, a 36.7% increase year-on-year [3][4]. - The company has deepened its penetration in lower-tier markets, with 82% of stores located in second-tier cities and below, which is expected to further enhance scale effects [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In 2025, the company reported a revenue of 12.91 billion yuan, up 46.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.11 billion yuan, up 110.3% [2]. - The single store revenue for 25H2 was 7.25 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 51.6% [2]. Operational Analysis - The company expanded its store network significantly, with a total of 13,554 stores by the end of 2025, a 36.7% increase [3]. - The average single-store GMV reached 2.862 million yuan, growing 21.3% year-on-year, and daily cup sales increased from 384 to 456, an 18.8% rise [3]. - The gross margin and adjusted net profit margin were 33% and 19.9%, respectively, both up by 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Market Penetration - The proportion of stores in lower-tier cities reached 82%, with an increase in stores located in towns from 41% to 44% [4]. - The number of closed stores decreased to 652 in 2025, with a closure rate of 6.6%, down 0.9 percentage points from 2024, indicating strong confidence among franchisees [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.76 billion yuan, 3.43 billion yuan, and 3.84 billion yuan for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively [5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 21, 17, and 15 for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028 [5].