豫园股份（600655）：4Q25仍处地产瘦身阵痛期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been downgraded to "Accumulate" with a target price of RMB 5.00 [1][10]. Core Insights - The company is currently undergoing a painful period of asset reduction in the real estate sector, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2025. The revenue for 2025 is reported at RMB 36.373 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.49%, and a net loss of RMB 4.897 billion, which is a decline of RMB 50.2 billion compared to the previous year [6][10]. - The company's strategy of "streamlining and focusing on core businesses" is showing initial results, with improvements in the profitability of its core consumer business and a steady increase in the gross margin of the jewelry fashion segment [6][9]. - The company has faced challenges in its jewelry fashion segment, with a revenue decline of 24.2% to RMB 22.73 billion due to macroeconomic pressures and fluctuations in international gold prices [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2025, the company reported: - Revenue: RMB 36.373 billion, down 22.49% year-on-year - Net profit attributable to the parent company: RMB -4.897 billion, a decrease of 50.2 billion year-on-year - EPS (latest diluted): RMB -1.26 [5][6] - The gross margin for 2025 decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 13.3%, with the jewelry fashion segment's gross margin increasing by 0.1 percentage points to 8.3% [8][9]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027, with expected net profits of RMB 267 million and RMB 928 million, respectively [10][13]. Business Strategy and Outlook - The company is actively optimizing its business structure, closing inefficient stores, and focusing on new product launches in the jewelry fashion segment. The overseas revenue for 2025 reached RMB 9.4 billion, with a significant increase in jewelry sales in international markets [9][10]. - The real estate segment is expected to continue its dynamic divestment strategy, with ongoing projects anticipated to contribute positively to future revenue and profitability [9][10].