持货商出货意愿有所增强，现货成交有所回暖

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: Sell put options [7] 2. Core View of the Report - Despite a significant decline in the global equity market and commodities due to the possible interest rate hike, the prices of most non - ferrous metals, including copper, rebounded last night. With the decline in oil prices, the market's pricing of interest rate hikes may be gradually corrected. Given the high US Treasury debt, interest rate hikes are difficult to implement. Enterprises with hedging needs are advised to buy on dips for hedging, with a hedging volume of about one month [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On March 25, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 93,600 yuan/ton and closed at 95,590 yuan/ton, a 1.66% increase from the previous trading day's close. Last night, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 95,950 yuan/ton and closed at 96,250 yuan/ton, a 0.69% increase from the afternoon close [1] 3.1.2 Spot Situation - Yesterday morning, the 2604 contract of Shanghai copper futures opened with a gap up, reached a high of 96,260 yuan/ton and then fell back, finishing at 95,500 yuan/ton. The spread between months was between Contango 20 yuan/ton and Backwardation 20 yuan/ton, and the import profit was 150 - 240 yuan/ton. The sales and purchase sentiment in Shanghai's electrolytic copper market changed in opposite directions. In the morning, the discount of flat - copper was 80 - 60 yuan/ton, that of good copper was 60 - 50 yuan/ton, and that of non - registered copper was 170 - 150 yuan/ton. Then some holders sold off, widening the discount. In the second period, the discount was further reduced, and trading volume increased. After the copper price jumped, downstream buyers were cautious, and holders were more willing to sell. The price difference between good copper and flat - copper narrowed. It is expected that the current spot discount will continue [2] 3.2 Important Information Summary 3.2.1 Geopolitical Situation - Iran denied the possibility of negotiations with the US. Iran put forward five conditions for a cease - fire. Non - belligerent ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz safely after coordination. Cosco Shipping Lines resumed new booking business for ordinary containers to some Middle - East countries [3] 3.2.2 Mining End - Bezant Resources acquired an additional 20% stake in the Hope and Gorob Mining joint - venture for 1.11 million pounds, increasing its share to 90%. The project has good resource potential. After the acquisition, the company will accelerate related work. Rio Tinto is promoting the Resolution copper mine to start production, aiming for formal operation in the early to mid - 2030s. The mine is expected to produce over 40 billion pounds (about 18.1 million tons) of copper in its lifetime, but may need to export some copper concentrates due to the poor economic efficiency of the US copper smelting industry. Rio Tinto has obtained land control rights and started a $500 - million drilling activity [4] 3.2.3 Smelting and Import - In January 2026, China imported 64,900 tons of anode copper, a 5.74% increase month - on - month and a 1.48% increase year - on - year. In February, the import volume was 56,900 tons, a 12.33% decrease month - on - month and a 0.81% increase year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to February was 121,700 tons, a 1.16% increase year - on - year [5] 3.2.4 Consumption - From January to February 2026, China's cumulative import volume of copper foil was 13,576.44 tons, a 12.73% increase year - on - year, and the cumulative export volume was 10,956.54 tons, a 77.57% increase year - on - year. After the sharp decline in copper prices, downstream purchasing willingness increased, and some enterprises raised processing fees and margin ratios [5][6] 3.2.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 900 tons to 360,175 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 10,599 tons to 252,111 tons. On March 25, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 467,700 tons, a decrease of 55,400 tons from the previous week [6] 3.3 Price and Basis Data - The report provides data on SMM 1 copper (including different types of copper), LME (0 - 3), inventory of different exchanges, warehouse receipts, spreads between contracts, import profit, and the ratio of copper to other metals at different time points (March 26, 2026; March 25, 2026; March 19, 2026; February 24, 2026) [24][27][28]