豫园股份：闭店阵痛业绩承压，主业毛利率边际改善-20260326

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 36.373 billion RMB for 2025, a significant decline of 22.49% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -4.897 billion RMB, marking a substantial drop [11][12]. - The jewelry business saw a revenue of 22.734 billion RMB in 2025, down 24.16% year-on-year, primarily due to store closures. However, there was a marginal improvement in profitability, with gross margins increasing to 8.5% and 9.2% in Q3 and Q4 respectively [3][4]. - The real estate sector faced ongoing challenges, with revenue declining by 19.82% to 8.049 billion RMB in 2025, leading to asset impairment losses of approximately 1.46 billion RMB [4][5]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In 2025, the company experienced a total revenue of 36.373 billion RMB, a decrease of 22.49% compared to the previous year, and a net profit of -4.897 billion RMB, reflecting a significant downturn [11][12]. Operational Analysis - The decline in main business revenue was attributed to store closures, while the jewelry segment showed slight profitability improvements. The financial leverage resulted in high interest expenses, and fixed costs did not decrease in line with revenue, leading to operational losses [3][4]. Real Estate Business - The real estate sector continued to face deep adjustments, with revenue falling to 8.049 billion RMB, a 19.82% decrease year-on-year. The company recorded asset impairment losses of nearly 1.46 billion RMB due to pressures in the industry [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The jewelry business is expected to continue its profitability improvement trend, and with the release of impairment pressures, the company's performance is projected to gradually recover. The estimated net profits for 2026-2028 are 0.80 million RMB, 5.13 million RMB, and 7.48 million RMB respectively [5].