豫园股份（600655）：闭店阵痛业绩承压，主业毛利率边际改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 36.373 billion RMB for 2025, a significant decline of 22.49% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -4.897 billion RMB, marking a substantial drop [11]. - The jewelry business experienced a revenue of 22.734 billion RMB in 2025, down 24.16% year-on-year, primarily due to store closures affecting franchise operations [3]. - The real estate sector faced ongoing challenges, with revenue declining by 19.82% to 8.049 billion RMB in 2025, leading to asset impairment losses of approximately 1.46 billion RMB [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 36.373 billion RMB, down 22.49% year-on-year, and a net profit of -4.897 billion RMB, a significant decline [11]. - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 7.973 billion RMB and a net profit of -4.409 billion RMB [11]. Operational Analysis - The jewelry segment's revenue was 22.734 billion RMB in 2025, down 24.16% year-on-year, largely due to the impact of store closures [3]. - The gross margins for Q3 and Q4 of 2025 were 8.5% and 9.2%, respectively, showing a slight improvement despite the revenue decline [3]. - The company faced high interest expenses due to financial leverage, and fixed costs did not decrease in line with revenue, leading to operational losses [3]. Real Estate Business - The real estate sector's revenue fell to 8.049 billion RMB in 2025, a decrease of 19.82% year-on-year, with significant asset impairment losses recorded [4]. - The company recognized nearly 1.46 billion RMB in asset impairment losses and 430 million RMB in credit impairment losses due to pressures in the real estate market [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts a gradual recovery in the company's performance, with net profits expected to reach 0.80 million RMB in 2026, 5.13 million RMB in 2027, and 7.48 million RMB in 2028 [5]. - The jewelry business is anticipated to continue its profitability improvement trend, alongside the release of impairment pressures [5].